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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 18?

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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 18?

Apr 16

Apr 17

Apr 18

Apr 16

Apr 17

Apr 18

29°C 32%

28°C 28%

30°C 24%

27°C 7%

Polymarket
NEW

$13,263 Vol.

29°C 32%

28°C 28%

30°C 24%

27°C 7%

Polymarket
NEW

$13,263 Vol.

21°C or below

$1,243 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$2,231 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$1,941 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$2,545 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$2,621 Vol.

<1%

26°C

$689 Vol.

1%

27°C

$664 Vol.

7%

28°C

$292 Vol.

28%

29°C

$363 Vol.

32%

30°C

$250 Vol.

24%

31°C or higher

$424 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day forecast, updated at 11:30 HKT on April 16, projects a maximum temperature range of 24–29°C for April 18 amid light winds, sunny intervals, and isolated showers from a nearby trough of low pressure edging closer to southern China. This caps trader-implied odds at around 31.5% for 29°C, 27.5% for 28°C, and 26% for 30°C, reflecting model uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing—persistent afternoon showers could suppress peaks to 27–28°C by limiting solar heating, while clearer skies enable urban heat buildup toward 29–30°C. High relative humidity (70–95%) aids warmth retention, consistent with above-normal April trends, but low rain probability introduces variability; watch tomorrow's forecast update for refined guidance.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,263
End Date
Apr 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day forecast, updated at 11:30 HKT on April 16, projects a maximum temperature range of 24–29°C for April 18 amid light winds, sunny intervals, and isolated showers from a nearby trough of low pressure edging closer to southern China. This caps trader-implied odds at around 31.5% for 29°C, 27.5% for 28°C, and 26% for 30°C, reflecting model uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing—persistent afternoon showers could suppress peaks to 27–28°C by limiting solar heating, while clearer skies enable urban heat buildup toward 29–30°C. High relative humidity (70–95%) aids warmth retention, consistent with above-normal April trends, but low rain probability introduces variability; watch tomorrow's forecast update for refined guidance.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,263
End Date
Apr 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 18?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "29°C" at 32%, followed by "28°C" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 18?" has generated $13.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 18?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 18?" is "29°C" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "28°C" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 18?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.