Official National Weather Service observations at Houston's William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU), the market's designated reporting station, confirm the highest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached 76-77°F, driving the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome. This positioning stems from a recent cold front ushering in cooler continental air, northerly winds, and persistent cloud cover that limited solar heating and daytime highs to 6-7°F below the 83°F May climatological normal. Forecast models from NOAA accurately anticipated this suppression, aligning trader sentiment with verified METAR data. While post-preliminary quality checks by the National Centers for Environmental Information rarely alter records, a challenge could arise from sensor recalibration or site-specific anomalies, though none are indicated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on May 2?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 2?
76-77°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$77,511 Vol.
$77,511 Vol.
May 2, 2026
69°F or below
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
Yes
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
76-77°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$77,511 Vol.
$77,511 Vol.
May 2, 2026
69°F or below
$11,965 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$5,295 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$4,606 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$8,649 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$6,957 Vol.
Yes
78-79°F
$10,630 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$7,415 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$5,669 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$3,544 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$9,011 Vol.
No
88°F or higher
$3,770 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations at Houston's William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU), the market's designated reporting station, confirm the highest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached 76-77°F, driving the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome. This positioning stems from a recent cold front ushering in cooler continental air, northerly winds, and persistent cloud cover that limited solar heating and daytime highs to 6-7°F below the 83°F May climatological normal. Forecast models from NOAA accurately anticipated this suppression, aligning trader sentiment with verified METAR data. While post-preliminary quality checks by the National Centers for Environmental Information rarely alter records, a challenge could arise from sensor recalibration or site-specific anomalies, though none are indicated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$77,511End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations at Houston's William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU), the market's designated reporting station, confirm the highest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached 76-77°F, driving the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome. This positioning stems from a recent cold front ushering in cooler continental air, northerly winds, and persistent cloud cover that limited solar heating and daytime highs to 6-7°F below the 83°F May climatological normal. Forecast models from NOAA accurately anticipated this suppression, aligning trader sentiment with verified METAR data. While post-preliminary quality checks by the National Centers for Environmental Information rarely alter records, a challenge could arise from sensor recalibration or site-specific anomalies, though none are indicated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$77,511End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations at Houston's William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU), the market's designated reporting station, confirm the highest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached 76-77°F, driving the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome. This positioning stems from a recent cold front ushering in cooler continental air, northerly winds, and persistent cloud cover that limited solar heating and daytime highs to 6-7°F below the 83°F May climatological normal. Forecast models from NOAA accurately anticipated this suppression, aligning trader sentiment with verified METAR data. While post-preliminary quality checks by the National Centers for Environmental Information rarely alter records, a challenge could arise from sensor recalibration or site-specific anomalies, though none are indicated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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