Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs and local analyses from Turkey's meteorological service, converge on a daytime maximum near 25°C for Istanbul on September 9 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with moderate northeasterly flow. This aligns with early-September climatology, where high pressure and subsiding air typically limit further warming after recent days near 26–28°C. Trader consensus at 96.5% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this model agreement and minimal expected variability. A stronger-than-forecast sea breeze or increased cloud cover could cap readings below that threshold, while clearer skies or weaker winds might push the official station maximum to 26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 9?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 9?
25°C 97%
26°C 4%
27°C <1%
21°C or below <1%
$18,880 Vol.
$18,880 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
97%
26°C
4%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 97%
26°C 4%
27°C <1%
21°C or below <1%
$18,880 Vol.
$18,880 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
21°C or below
$666 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,434 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$673 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,725 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$5,084 Vol.
97%
26°C
$3,379 Vol.
4%
27°C
$1,436 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,885 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,532 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$664 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$401 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs and local analyses from Turkey's meteorological service, converge on a daytime maximum near 25°C for Istanbul on September 9 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with moderate northeasterly flow. This aligns with early-September climatology, where high pressure and subsiding air typically limit further warming after recent days near 26–28°C. Trader consensus at 96.5% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this model agreement and minimal expected variability. A stronger-than-forecast sea breeze or increased cloud cover could cap readings below that threshold, while clearer skies or weaker winds might push the official station maximum to 26°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$18,880End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs and local analyses from Turkey's meteorological service, converge on a daytime maximum near 25°C for Istanbul on September 9 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with moderate northeasterly flow. This aligns with early-September climatology, where high pressure and subsiding air typically limit further warming after recent days near 26–28°C. Trader consensus at 96.5% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this model agreement and minimal expected variability. A stronger-than-forecast sea breeze or increased cloud cover could cap readings below that threshold, while clearer skies or weaker winds might push the official station maximum to 26°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,880End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs and local analyses from Turkey's meteorological service, converge on a daytime maximum near 25°C for Istanbul on September 9 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with moderate northeasterly flow. This aligns with early-September climatology, where high pressure and subsiding air typically limit further warming after recent days near 26–28°C. Trader consensus at 96.5% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this model agreement and minimal expected variability. A stronger-than-forecast sea breeze or increased cloud cover could cap readings below that threshold, while clearer skies or weaker winds might push the official station maximum to 26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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