Trader consensus heavily favors 33°C or below at 63% implied probability for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 25, driven by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 32-34°C amid cooler northerly winds suppressing heat buildup. Recent observations show Lucknow's March 23 max at 32.4°C and March 24 at 33.2°C, aligning with seasonal norms for late March (historical average ~34°C) but tempered by a passing western disturbance bringing cloud cover and light showers. Lower odds for 35-37°C reflect model agreement on stable atmospheric conditions, while extreme highs above 40°C carry negligible probability absent any heatwave signal in upper-air data or ensemble predictions. Upcoming hourly observations from IMD stations will refine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 25?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 25?
33°C or below 63%
37°C 14%
35°C 13%
34°C 12%
33°C or below
63%
34°C
12%
35°C
13%
36°C
12%
37°C
14%
38°C
1%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C
2%
42°C
9%
43°C or higher
1%
33°C or below 63%
37°C 14%
35°C 13%
34°C 12%
33°C or below
63%
34°C
12%
35°C
13%
36°C
12%
37°C
14%
38°C
1%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C
2%
42°C
9%
43°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 33°C or below at 63% implied probability for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 25, driven by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 32-34°C amid cooler northerly winds suppressing heat buildup. Recent observations show Lucknow's March 23 max at 32.4°C and March 24 at 33.2°C, aligning with seasonal norms for late March (historical average ~34°C) but tempered by a passing western disturbance bringing cloud cover and light showers. Lower odds for 35-37°C reflect model agreement on stable atmospheric conditions, while extreme highs above 40°C carry negligible probability absent any heatwave signal in upper-air data or ensemble predictions. Upcoming hourly observations from IMD stations will refine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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