Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus outputs from major agencies, indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 4 most likely reaching 33–34 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with surface observations and recent model runs supporting this narrow range rather than extremes; climatological baselines for early August average near 32 °C. Limited moisture and typical summer steering patterns reduce the chance of significant cooling or rapid warming, keeping market-implied probabilities centered on these values while allowing for minor adjustments as new 48-hour guidance arrives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 4?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 4?
34°C 55%
33°C 32%
35°C 10%
31°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
3%
33°C
32%
34°C
55%
35°C
10%
36°C
3%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 55%
33°C 32%
35°C 10%
31°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
$120 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$32 Vol.
1%
31°C
$24 Vol.
3%
32°C
$120 Vol.
3%
33°C
$834 Vol.
32%
34°C
$418 Vol.
55%
35°C
$349 Vol.
10%
36°C
$163 Vol.
3%
37°C
$142 Vol.
2%
38°C
$67 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$357 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus outputs from major agencies, indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 4 most likely reaching 33–34 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with surface observations and recent model runs supporting this narrow range rather than extremes; climatological baselines for early August average near 32 °C. Limited moisture and typical summer steering patterns reduce the chance of significant cooling or rapid warming, keeping market-implied probabilities centered on these values while allowing for minor adjustments as new 48-hour guidance arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,626End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus outputs from major agencies, indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 4 most likely reaching 33–34 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with surface observations and recent model runs supporting this narrow range rather than extremes; climatological baselines for early August average near 32 °C. Limited moisture and typical summer steering patterns reduce the chance of significant cooling or rapid warming, keeping market-implied probabilities centered on these values while allowing for minor adjustments as new 48-hour guidance arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,626End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus outputs from major agencies, indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 4 most likely reaching 33–34 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with surface observations and recent model runs supporting this narrow range rather than extremes; climatological baselines for early August average near 32 °C. Limited moisture and typical summer steering patterns reduce the chance of significant cooling or rapid warming, keeping market-implied probabilities centered on these values while allowing for minor adjustments as new 48-hour guidance arrives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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