Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from global systems, point to a peak temperature in Moscow on June 21 near 22–24°C under moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover ahead of the summer solstice. This reflects a post-heatwave moderation following earlier June maxima near 30°C, with limited warm-air advection and potential for daytime heating tempered by increasing moisture and light winds. Trader consensus across closely bunched outcomes (22°C at 31.5% implied probability leading) captures model spread in exact timing of any frontal passage or insolation, while probabilities for 25°C or higher remain lower due to climatological baselines around 22°C and recent cooling trends. Updated short-range forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on June 21?
Highest temperature in Moscow on June 21?
25°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$35,234 Vol.
$35,234 Vol.
Jun 21, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$35,234 Vol.
$35,234 Vol.
Jun 21, 2026
18°C or below
$1,315 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,232 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,247 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,212 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,959 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,114 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,527 Vol.
No
25°C
$8,955 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$4,831 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,826 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$1,017 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from global systems, point to a peak temperature in Moscow on June 21 near 22–24°C under moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover ahead of the summer solstice. This reflects a post-heatwave moderation following earlier June maxima near 30°C, with limited warm-air advection and potential for daytime heating tempered by increasing moisture and light winds. Trader consensus across closely bunched outcomes (22°C at 31.5% implied probability leading) captures model spread in exact timing of any frontal passage or insolation, while probabilities for 25°C or higher remain lower due to climatological baselines around 22°C and recent cooling trends. Updated short-range forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 19, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$35,234End Date
Jun 21, 2026Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from global systems, point to a peak temperature in Moscow on June 21 near 22–24°C under moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover ahead of the summer solstice. This reflects a post-heatwave moderation following earlier June maxima near 30°C, with limited warm-air advection and potential for daytime heating tempered by increasing moisture and light winds. Trader consensus across closely bunched outcomes (22°C at 31.5% implied probability leading) captures model spread in exact timing of any frontal passage or insolation, while probabilities for 25°C or higher remain lower due to climatological baselines around 22°C and recent cooling trends. Updated short-range forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$35,234End Date
Jun 21, 2026Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from global systems, point to a peak temperature in Moscow on June 21 near 22–24°C under moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover ahead of the summer solstice. This reflects a post-heatwave moderation following earlier June maxima near 30°C, with limited warm-air advection and potential for daytime heating tempered by increasing moisture and light winds. Trader consensus across closely bunched outcomes (22°C at 31.5% implied probability leading) captures model spread in exact timing of any frontal passage or insolation, while probabilities for 25°C or higher remain lower due to climatological baselines around 22°C and recent cooling trends. Updated short-range forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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