Current forecast guidance for São Paulo points to a highest temperature near 26–27°C on August 3, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. In the city’s dry winter season, reduced cloud cover and subsidence under the South Atlantic subtropical high typically allow greater daytime heating, while variable steering by mid-level winds can either advect warmer continental air or introduce cooler maritime flow from the south. Recent model runs show modest positive temperature anomalies across southeastern Brazil, with limited cold-front activity expected to moderate highs. Traders appear to weigh this seasonal warming potential against historical August maxima near 23–25°C, producing the observed clustering around 26–28°C while assigning low odds to extremes outside that narrow range. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and next model cycle will refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 3?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 3?
27°C 50%
26°C 25%
28°C 12%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
11%
26°C
25%
27°C
50%
28°C
12%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
2%
27°C 50%
26°C 25%
28°C 12%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
20°C or below
$671 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$934 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$401 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$396 Vol.
1%
24°C
$160 Vol.
4%
25°C
$146 Vol.
11%
26°C
$245 Vol.
25%
27°C
$1,327 Vol.
50%
28°C
$443 Vol.
12%
29°C
$140 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$50 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance for São Paulo points to a highest temperature near 26–27°C on August 3, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. In the city’s dry winter season, reduced cloud cover and subsidence under the South Atlantic subtropical high typically allow greater daytime heating, while variable steering by mid-level winds can either advect warmer continental air or introduce cooler maritime flow from the south. Recent model runs show modest positive temperature anomalies across southeastern Brazil, with limited cold-front activity expected to moderate highs. Traders appear to weigh this seasonal warming potential against historical August maxima near 23–25°C, producing the observed clustering around 26–28°C while assigning low odds to extremes outside that narrow range. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and next model cycle will refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$4,913End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance for São Paulo points to a highest temperature near 26–27°C on August 3, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. In the city’s dry winter season, reduced cloud cover and subsidence under the South Atlantic subtropical high typically allow greater daytime heating, while variable steering by mid-level winds can either advect warmer continental air or introduce cooler maritime flow from the south. Recent model runs show modest positive temperature anomalies across southeastern Brazil, with limited cold-front activity expected to moderate highs. Traders appear to weigh this seasonal warming potential against historical August maxima near 23–25°C, producing the observed clustering around 26–28°C while assigning low odds to extremes outside that narrow range. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and next model cycle will refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,913End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance for São Paulo points to a highest temperature near 26–27°C on August 3, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. In the city’s dry winter season, reduced cloud cover and subsidence under the South Atlantic subtropical high typically allow greater daytime heating, while variable steering by mid-level winds can either advect warmer continental air or introduce cooler maritime flow from the south. Recent model runs show modest positive temperature anomalies across southeastern Brazil, with limited cold-front activity expected to moderate highs. Traders appear to weigh this seasonal warming potential against historical August maxima near 23–25°C, producing the observed clustering around 26–28°C while assigning low odds to extremes outside that narrow range. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and next model cycle will refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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