Current meteorological models and seasonal climatology position 27–29°C as the leading outcomes for São Paulo’s August 2 high, with market-implied probabilities reflecting trader consensus on a modest positive anomaly above the 23–25°C August average. Subtropical winter conditions, modulated by high-pressure ridging and limited cold-front intrusions from the south, support daytime maxima in this range, while recent regional analyses note drier, warmer-than-normal patterns across southeast Brazil that could elevate readings by 2–4°C. Official agency guidance from sources such as INMET and global ensembles shows low uncertainty around these thresholds ahead of the final 24-hour forecast update, though any late southerly flow shift could cap temperatures nearer 26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 2?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 2?
28°C 42%
29°C 23%
27°C 21%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
7%
27°C
21%
28°C
42%
29°C
23%
30°C
4%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 42%
29°C 23%
27°C 21%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
22°C or below
$15 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$15 Vol.
1%
24°C
$40 Vol.
1%
25°C
$29 Vol.
2%
26°C
$60 Vol.
7%
27°C
$115 Vol.
21%
28°C
$3,808 Vol.
42%
29°C
$309 Vol.
23%
30°C
$15 Vol.
4%
31°C
$46 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$43 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological models and seasonal climatology position 27–29°C as the leading outcomes for São Paulo’s August 2 high, with market-implied probabilities reflecting trader consensus on a modest positive anomaly above the 23–25°C August average. Subtropical winter conditions, modulated by high-pressure ridging and limited cold-front intrusions from the south, support daytime maxima in this range, while recent regional analyses note drier, warmer-than-normal patterns across southeast Brazil that could elevate readings by 2–4°C. Official agency guidance from sources such as INMET and global ensembles shows low uncertainty around these thresholds ahead of the final 24-hour forecast update, though any late southerly flow shift could cap temperatures nearer 26°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$4,494End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological models and seasonal climatology position 27–29°C as the leading outcomes for São Paulo’s August 2 high, with market-implied probabilities reflecting trader consensus on a modest positive anomaly above the 23–25°C August average. Subtropical winter conditions, modulated by high-pressure ridging and limited cold-front intrusions from the south, support daytime maxima in this range, while recent regional analyses note drier, warmer-than-normal patterns across southeast Brazil that could elevate readings by 2–4°C. Official agency guidance from sources such as INMET and global ensembles shows low uncertainty around these thresholds ahead of the final 24-hour forecast update, though any late southerly flow shift could cap temperatures nearer 26°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,494End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current meteorological models and seasonal climatology position 27–29°C as the leading outcomes for São Paulo’s August 2 high, with market-implied probabilities reflecting trader consensus on a modest positive anomaly above the 23–25°C August average. Subtropical winter conditions, modulated by high-pressure ridging and limited cold-front intrusions from the south, support daytime maxima in this range, while recent regional analyses note drier, warmer-than-normal patterns across southeast Brazil that could elevate readings by 2–4°C. Official agency guidance from sources such as INMET and global ensembles shows low uncertainty around these thresholds ahead of the final 24-hour forecast update, though any late southerly flow shift could cap temperatures nearer 26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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