Trader consensus heavily favors 32°C (58% implied probability) and 33°C (42.5%) as the daily maximum in Tel Aviv on September 7, driven by the latest ensemble outputs from global models showing peaks in the 31–32°C range under stable, mostly clear conditions with light westerly flow. Early September climatology in the eastern Mediterranean supports these values, with typical midday heating and low humidity allowing efficient surface warming absent any significant cloud or frontal activity. Minor model disagreements on exact timing of peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing create the narrow spread between the two leading outcomes, while probabilities below 30°C or above 34°C remain negligible given current guidance. Updated runs from major centers will further refine resolution as the date approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 7?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 7?
32°C 55%
33°C 44%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
55%
33°C
44%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
32°C 55%
33°C 44%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
29°C or below
$639 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$547 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$523 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,268 Vol.
55%
33°C
$1,250 Vol.
44%
34°C
$331 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$225 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$270 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$286 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$286 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$276 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors 32°C (58% implied probability) and 33°C (42.5%) as the daily maximum in Tel Aviv on September 7, driven by the latest ensemble outputs from global models showing peaks in the 31–32°C range under stable, mostly clear conditions with light westerly flow. Early September climatology in the eastern Mediterranean supports these values, with typical midday heating and low humidity allowing efficient surface warming absent any significant cloud or frontal activity. Minor model disagreements on exact timing of peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing create the narrow spread between the two leading outcomes, while probabilities below 30°C or above 34°C remain negligible given current guidance. Updated runs from major centers will further refine resolution as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,900End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors 32°C (58% implied probability) and 33°C (42.5%) as the daily maximum in Tel Aviv on September 7, driven by the latest ensemble outputs from global models showing peaks in the 31–32°C range under stable, mostly clear conditions with light westerly flow. Early September climatology in the eastern Mediterranean supports these values, with typical midday heating and low humidity allowing efficient surface warming absent any significant cloud or frontal activity. Minor model disagreements on exact timing of peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing create the narrow spread between the two leading outcomes, while probabilities below 30°C or above 34°C remain negligible given current guidance. Updated runs from major centers will further refine resolution as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,900End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 32°C (58% implied probability) and 33°C (42.5%) as the daily maximum in Tel Aviv on September 7, driven by the latest ensemble outputs from global models showing peaks in the 31–32°C range under stable, mostly clear conditions with light westerly flow. Early September climatology in the eastern Mediterranean supports these values, with typical midday heating and low humidity allowing efficient surface warming absent any significant cloud or frontal activity. Minor model disagreements on exact timing of peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing create the narrow spread between the two leading outcomes, while probabilities below 30°C or above 34°C remain negligible given current guidance. Updated runs from major centers will further refine resolution as the date approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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