Recent forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daily high near 30–31°C in Shanghai on September 5, supporting the market's strongest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Northerly to northeasterly flow, increased cloud cover, and scattered shower potential are expected to limit daytime heating compared with earlier in the week, while dew points in the mid-20s Celsius sustain humidity that can suppress further warming. Model runs show limited spread around this range, with only modest upside risk if skies clear more than anticipated. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 5?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 5?
30°C 49%
31°C 35%
29°C 13%
32°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
13%
30°C
49%
31°C
35%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 49%
31°C 35%
29°C 13%
32°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
25°C or below
$36 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$36 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$71 Vol.
2%
28°C
$57 Vol.
4%
29°C
$76 Vol.
13%
30°C
$180 Vol.
49%
31°C
$194 Vol.
35%
32°C
$66 Vol.
5%
33°C
$57 Vol.
2%
34°C
$36 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$147 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daily high near 30–31°C in Shanghai on September 5, supporting the market's strongest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Northerly to northeasterly flow, increased cloud cover, and scattered shower potential are expected to limit daytime heating compared with earlier in the week, while dew points in the mid-20s Celsius sustain humidity that can suppress further warming. Model runs show limited spread around this range, with only modest upside risk if skies clear more than anticipated. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$956End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daily high near 30–31°C in Shanghai on September 5, supporting the market's strongest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Northerly to northeasterly flow, increased cloud cover, and scattered shower potential are expected to limit daytime heating compared with earlier in the week, while dew points in the mid-20s Celsius sustain humidity that can suppress further warming. Model runs show limited spread around this range, with only modest upside risk if skies clear more than anticipated. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$956End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daily high near 30–31°C in Shanghai on September 5, supporting the market's strongest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Northerly to northeasterly flow, increased cloud cover, and scattered shower potential are expected to limit daytime heating compared with earlier in the week, while dew points in the mid-20s Celsius sustain humidity that can suppress further warming. Model runs show limited spread around this range, with only modest upside risk if skies clear more than anticipated. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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