**Recent forecasts for Shanghai on September 4, 2026, center on daily highs of 28–31°C under partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and modest rain chances, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 31°C (46.0%) and 30°C (34.5%).** Current conditions feature persistent moisture from a regional weather pattern, with northeast flow and elevated humidity moderating daytime heating. Official and model guidance (including multi-source consensus from Chinese meteorological services and international models) consistently projects peak temperatures in this narrow range, as cloud cover and onshore winds limit radiative warming. Historical early-September climatology for Shanghai shows average highs near 29–30°C, providing a stable baseline that recent observations have tracked closely without notable deviations from heat or strong cooling. Model agreement remains high for this short-range period, with only limited upside risk to 32°C or above if skies clear more than expected. Traders appear to price the high probability of resolution near the 30–31°C thresholds given the latest forecast consensus and the absence of disruptive atmospheric shifts. Updated model runs and Shanghai Meteorological Bureau briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term drivers for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 4?
31°C 46%
30°C 35%
32°C 9%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
6%
30°C
35%
31°C
46%
32°C
9%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 46%
30°C 35%
32°C 9%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
25°C or below
$199 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$128 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C
$51 Vol.
3%
29°C
$78 Vol.
6%
30°C
$859 Vol.
35%
31°C
$188 Vol.
46%
32°C
$54 Vol.
9%
33°C
$76 Vol.
2%
34°C
$180 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$111 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Shanghai on September 4, 2026, center on daily highs of 28–31°C under partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and modest rain chances, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 31°C (46.0%) and 30°C (34.5%).**
Current conditions feature persistent moisture from a regional weather pattern, with northeast flow and elevated humidity moderating daytime heating. Official and model guidance (including multi-source consensus from Chinese meteorological services and international models) consistently projects peak temperatures in this narrow range, as cloud cover and onshore winds limit radiative warming. Historical early-September climatology for Shanghai shows average highs near 29–30°C, providing a stable baseline that recent observations have tracked closely without notable deviations from heat or strong cooling.
Model agreement remains high for this short-range period, with only limited upside risk to 32°C or above if skies clear more than expected. Traders appear to price the high probability of resolution near the 30–31°C thresholds given the latest forecast consensus and the absence of disruptive atmospheric shifts. Updated model runs and Shanghai Meteorological Bureau briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term drivers for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,924End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Shanghai on September 4, 2026, center on daily highs of 28–31°C under partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and modest rain chances, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 31°C (46.0%) and 30°C (34.5%).**
Current conditions feature persistent moisture from a regional weather pattern, with northeast flow and elevated humidity moderating daytime heating. Official and model guidance (including multi-source consensus from Chinese meteorological services and international models) consistently projects peak temperatures in this narrow range, as cloud cover and onshore winds limit radiative warming. Historical early-September climatology for Shanghai shows average highs near 29–30°C, providing a stable baseline that recent observations have tracked closely without notable deviations from heat or strong cooling.
Model agreement remains high for this short-range period, with only limited upside risk to 32°C or above if skies clear more than expected. Traders appear to price the high probability of resolution near the 30–31°C thresholds given the latest forecast consensus and the absence of disruptive atmospheric shifts. Updated model runs and Shanghai Meteorological Bureau briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term drivers for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,924End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts for Shanghai on September 4, 2026, center on daily highs of 28–31°C under partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and modest rain chances, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 31°C (46.0%) and 30°C (34.5%).** Current conditions feature persistent moisture from a regional weather pattern, with northeast flow and elevated humidity moderating daytime heating. Official and model guidance (including multi-source consensus from Chinese meteorological services and international models) consistently projects peak temperatures in this narrow range, as cloud cover and onshore winds limit radiative warming. Historical early-September climatology for Shanghai shows average highs near 29–30°C, providing a stable baseline that recent observations have tracked closely without notable deviations from heat or strong cooling. Model agreement remains high for this short-range period, with only limited upside risk to 32°C or above if skies clear more than expected. Traders appear to price the high probability of resolution near the 30–31°C thresholds given the latest forecast consensus and the absence of disruptive atmospheric shifts. Updated model runs and Shanghai Meteorological Bureau briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term drivers for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions