**Forecast models from sources including Météo-France, GFS, and ECMWF consensus show Paris maximum temperatures on September 5, 2026, clustering tightly around 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies, light northwesterly winds, and stable high pressure.** This positions 25°C (42.5% implied probability) and 26°C (23.5%) as the leading market outcomes, with 24°C (18%) close behind. Afternoon highs are expected near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F) after morning lows in the mid-teens °C, consistent with early-September climatology and the current northwesterly flow advecting milder maritime air. Recent developments include a broader southern France heatwave pushing 30–40°C farther south, but Paris remains buffered by the Seine Valley and prevailing winds, keeping local maxima moderate. No significant model divergence or rapid warming trends have emerged in the past 48 hours. Traders are weighting the tight forecast spread and low precipitation risk (near 0–8%), while noting that final resolution hinges on the exact peak reading from official stations. Further model updates and observational data in the next 24–48 hours could refine the distribution within this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 5?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 5?
25°C 43%
26°C 24%
24°C 18%
23°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
7%
24°C
18%
25°C
43%
26°C
24%
27°C
6%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
2%
25°C 43%
26°C 24%
24°C 18%
23°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$17 Vol.
7%
24°C
$0 Vol.
18%
25°C
$52 Vol.
43%
26°C
$70 Vol.
24%
27°C
$0 Vol.
6%
28°C
$51 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including Météo-France, GFS, and ECMWF consensus show Paris maximum temperatures on September 5, 2026, clustering tightly around 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies, light northwesterly winds, and stable high pressure.**
This positions 25°C (42.5% implied probability) and 26°C (23.5%) as the leading market outcomes, with 24°C (18%) close behind. Afternoon highs are expected near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F) after morning lows in the mid-teens °C, consistent with early-September climatology and the current northwesterly flow advecting milder maritime air.
Recent developments include a broader southern France heatwave pushing 30–40°C farther south, but Paris remains buffered by the Seine Valley and prevailing winds, keeping local maxima moderate. No significant model divergence or rapid warming trends have emerged in the past 48 hours. Traders are weighting the tight forecast spread and low precipitation risk (near 0–8%), while noting that final resolution hinges on the exact peak reading from official stations. Further model updates and observational data in the next 24–48 hours could refine the distribution within this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$189End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including Météo-France, GFS, and ECMWF consensus show Paris maximum temperatures on September 5, 2026, clustering tightly around 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies, light northwesterly winds, and stable high pressure.**
This positions 25°C (42.5% implied probability) and 26°C (23.5%) as the leading market outcomes, with 24°C (18%) close behind. Afternoon highs are expected near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F) after morning lows in the mid-teens °C, consistent with early-September climatology and the current northwesterly flow advecting milder maritime air.
Recent developments include a broader southern France heatwave pushing 30–40°C farther south, but Paris remains buffered by the Seine Valley and prevailing winds, keeping local maxima moderate. No significant model divergence or rapid warming trends have emerged in the past 48 hours. Traders are weighting the tight forecast spread and low precipitation risk (near 0–8%), while noting that final resolution hinges on the exact peak reading from official stations. Further model updates and observational data in the next 24–48 hours could refine the distribution within this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$189End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources including Météo-France, GFS, and ECMWF consensus show Paris maximum temperatures on September 5, 2026, clustering tightly around 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies, light northwesterly winds, and stable high pressure.** This positions 25°C (42.5% implied probability) and 26°C (23.5%) as the leading market outcomes, with 24°C (18%) close behind. Afternoon highs are expected near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F) after morning lows in the mid-teens °C, consistent with early-September climatology and the current northwesterly flow advecting milder maritime air. Recent developments include a broader southern France heatwave pushing 30–40°C farther south, but Paris remains buffered by the Seine Valley and prevailing winds, keeping local maxima moderate. No significant model divergence or rapid warming trends have emerged in the past 48 hours. Traders are weighting the tight forecast spread and low precipitation risk (near 0–8%), while noting that final resolution hinges on the exact peak reading from official stations. Further model updates and observational data in the next 24–48 hours could refine the distribution within this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions