Recent nationwide polls, including Publicus (early December 2024) showing TISZA at 35% and Fidesz-KDNP at 30%, alongside Závecz Research data with TISZA at 33% versus Fidesz-KDNP at 31%, have propelled trader consensus toward Fidesz-KDNP as the likely second-place finisher at 65% implied probability in the 2026 parliamentary election. TISZA's 34.5% for second reflects the tight race, driven by Péter Magyar's surging challenger momentum from the June 2024 EU elections where TISZA captured nearly 30% amid Fidesz scandals, economic stagnation, and EU fund disputes. Fragmented legacy opposition parties like DK, MSZP, and Jobbik poll below 10% collectively, minimizing their threats, while Mi Hazánk lingers at under 1%. No snap election is scheduled, leaving room for polling shifts before the spring 2026 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFidesz-KDNP 65%
TISZA 35%
Mi Hazánk <1%
MSZP <1%
$55,916 Vol.
$55,916 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz-KDNP
65%
TISZA
35%
Mi Hazánk
1%
MSZP
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
DK
<1%
Momentum
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
LMP
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 65%
TISZA 35%
Mi Hazánk <1%
MSZP <1%
$55,916 Vol.
$55,916 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz-KDNP
$11,209 Vol.
65%
TISZA
$8,165 Vol.
35%
Mi Hazánk
$24,023 Vol.
1%
MSZP
$10,503 Vol.
<1%
Jobbik
$2,016 Vol.
<1%
DK
$0 Vol.
<1%
Momentum
$0 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$0 Vol.
<1%
LMP
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Recent nationwide polls, including Publicus (early December 2024) showing TISZA at 35% and Fidesz-KDNP at 30%, alongside Závecz Research data with TISZA at 33% versus Fidesz-KDNP at 31%, have propelled trader consensus toward Fidesz-KDNP as the likely second-place finisher at 65% implied probability in the 2026 parliamentary election. TISZA's 34.5% for second reflects the tight race, driven by Péter Magyar's surging challenger momentum from the June 2024 EU elections where TISZA captured nearly 30% amid Fidesz scandals, economic stagnation, and EU fund disputes. Fragmented legacy opposition parties like DK, MSZP, and Jobbik poll below 10% collectively, minimizing their threats, while Mi Hazánk lingers at under 1%. No snap election is scheduled, leaving room for polling shifts before the spring 2026 vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ET
Volume
$55,916End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Recent nationwide polls, including Publicus (early December 2024) showing TISZA at 35% and Fidesz-KDNP at 30%, alongside Závecz Research data with TISZA at 33% versus Fidesz-KDNP at 31%, have propelled trader consensus toward Fidesz-KDNP as the likely second-place finisher at 65% implied probability in the 2026 parliamentary election. TISZA's 34.5% for second reflects the tight race, driven by Péter Magyar's surging challenger momentum from the June 2024 EU elections where TISZA captured nearly 30% amid Fidesz scandals, economic stagnation, and EU fund disputes. Fragmented legacy opposition parties like DK, MSZP, and Jobbik poll below 10% collectively, minimizing their threats, while Mi Hazánk lingers at under 1%. No snap election is scheduled, leaving room for polling shifts before the spring 2026 vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
Volume
$55,916End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent nationwide polls, including Publicus (early December 2024) showing TISZA at 35% and Fidesz-KDNP at 30%, alongside Závecz Research data with TISZA at 33% versus Fidesz-KDNP at 31%, have propelled trader consensus toward Fidesz-KDNP as the likely second-place finisher at 65% implied probability in the 2026 parliamentary election. TISZA's 34.5% for second reflects the tight race, driven by Péter Magyar's surging challenger momentum from the June 2024 EU elections where TISZA captured nearly 30% amid Fidesz scandals, economic stagnation, and EU fund disputes. Fragmented legacy opposition parties like DK, MSZP, and Jobbik poll below 10% collectively, minimizing their threats, while Mi Hazánk lingers at under 1%. No snap election is scheduled, leaving room for polling shifts before the spring 2026 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
85%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
66%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
76%
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Frequently Asked Questions