Italy's Chamber of Deputies approved the nuclear framework bill in early June 2026, sending it to the Senate ahead of the summer recess. No Senate vote has occurred as of early August, however, and standard legislative timelines for delegation laws, combined with parliamentary scheduling and coalition priorities, leave insufficient time for approval by August 31. Traders assign 98.7% probability to "No" based on this procedural reality and the absence of confirmed action. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unscheduled emergency session or expedited floor consideration in the final weeks, though both remain constrained by institutional norms and the August calendar.