**Forecast models and official guidance from AEMET point to a minimum near 11–12°C overnight into September 10, driven by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under dry conditions.** This setup favors the market's leading outcome of 11°C or below (55.5% implied probability), consistent with recent model runs showing temperatures dropping to that range by dawn before rebounding under mostly sunny daytime conditions. Historical September averages for Madrid hover around 16°C for lows, so the current cooler air mass represents a notable but not extreme deviation. The secondary cluster around 12–15°C (combined ~45%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact timing and local effects, while the 21°C-or-higher outcome (30%) would require an unexpected warm-air advection that current guidance does not support. Traders are pricing in the latest AEMET forecast of an 11°C minimum and 27°C maximum for the day, with no significant precipitation or cloud cover expected to moderate overnight lows. Updated model runs or AEMET briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 10?
11°C or below 74%
12°C 23%
21°C or higher 21%
13°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
11°C or below
65%
12°C
23%
13°C
11%
14°C
9%
15°C
8%
16°C
4%
17°C
10%
18°C
7%
19°C
7%
20°C
9%
21°C or higher
21%
11°C or below 74%
12°C 23%
21°C or higher 21%
13°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
11°C or below
$21 Vol.
65%
12°C
$0 Vol.
23%
13°C
$0 Vol.
11%
14°C
$0 Vol.
9%
15°C
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C
$25 Vol.
4%
17°C
$6 Vol.
10%
18°C
$25 Vol.
7%
19°C
$25 Vol.
7%
20°C
$6 Vol.
9%
21°C or higher
$35 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from AEMET point to a minimum near 11–12°C overnight into September 10, driven by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under dry conditions.**
This setup favors the market's leading outcome of 11°C or below (55.5% implied probability), consistent with recent model runs showing temperatures dropping to that range by dawn before rebounding under mostly sunny daytime conditions. Historical September averages for Madrid hover around 16°C for lows, so the current cooler air mass represents a notable but not extreme deviation.
The secondary cluster around 12–15°C (combined ~45%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact timing and local effects, while the 21°C-or-higher outcome (30%) would require an unexpected warm-air advection that current guidance does not support. Traders are pricing in the latest AEMET forecast of an 11°C minimum and 27°C maximum for the day, with no significant precipitation or cloud cover expected to moderate overnight lows. Updated model runs or AEMET briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$143End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from AEMET point to a minimum near 11–12°C overnight into September 10, driven by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under dry conditions.**
This setup favors the market's leading outcome of 11°C or below (55.5% implied probability), consistent with recent model runs showing temperatures dropping to that range by dawn before rebounding under mostly sunny daytime conditions. Historical September averages for Madrid hover around 16°C for lows, so the current cooler air mass represents a notable but not extreme deviation.
The secondary cluster around 12–15°C (combined ~45%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact timing and local effects, while the 21°C-or-higher outcome (30%) would require an unexpected warm-air advection that current guidance does not support. Traders are pricing in the latest AEMET forecast of an 11°C minimum and 27°C maximum for the day, with no significant precipitation or cloud cover expected to moderate overnight lows. Updated model runs or AEMET briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$143End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from AEMET point to a minimum near 11–12°C overnight into September 10, driven by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under dry conditions.** This setup favors the market's leading outcome of 11°C or below (55.5% implied probability), consistent with recent model runs showing temperatures dropping to that range by dawn before rebounding under mostly sunny daytime conditions. Historical September averages for Madrid hover around 16°C for lows, so the current cooler air mass represents a notable but not extreme deviation. The secondary cluster around 12–15°C (combined ~45%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact timing and local effects, while the 21°C-or-higher outcome (30%) would require an unexpected warm-air advection that current guidance does not support. Traders are pricing in the latest AEMET forecast of an 11°C minimum and 27°C maximum for the day, with no significant precipitation or cloud cover expected to moderate overnight lows. Updated model runs or AEMET briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions