Persistent rain and northerly winds forecast for Tokyo on September 20 are elevating overnight minimum temperatures above the 19.3°C historical average for the date, with model consensus pointing to a low near 21–22°C amid heavy cloud cover and steady precipitation. Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency highlights limited diurnal temperature variation under these conditions, as moisture and reduced solar heating suppress both daytime peaks and nighttime radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s concentration of implied probability on 22°C (48.5%) and 21°C (35.5%), reflecting traders’ assessment of current ensemble forecasts rather than climatological norms. Shorter-range model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
22°C 49%
21°C 32%
19°C 17%
24°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
10%
19°C
17%
20°C
9%
21°C
32%
22°C
49%
23°C
10%
24°C
11%
25°C
7%
26°C or higher
2%
22°C 49%
21°C 32%
19°C 17%
24°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
10%
19°C
$0 Vol.
17%
20°C
$0 Vol.
9%
21°C
$166 Vol.
32%
22°C
$162 Vol.
49%
23°C
$102 Vol.
10%
24°C
$0 Vol.
11%
25°C
$0 Vol.
7%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly winds forecast for Tokyo on September 20 are elevating overnight minimum temperatures above the 19.3°C historical average for the date, with model consensus pointing to a low near 21–22°C amid heavy cloud cover and steady precipitation. Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency highlights limited diurnal temperature variation under these conditions, as moisture and reduced solar heating suppress both daytime peaks and nighttime radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s concentration of implied probability on 22°C (48.5%) and 21°C (35.5%), reflecting traders’ assessment of current ensemble forecasts rather than climatological norms. Shorter-range model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$430End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly winds forecast for Tokyo on September 20 are elevating overnight minimum temperatures above the 19.3°C historical average for the date, with model consensus pointing to a low near 21–22°C amid heavy cloud cover and steady precipitation. Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency highlights limited diurnal temperature variation under these conditions, as moisture and reduced solar heating suppress both daytime peaks and nighttime radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s concentration of implied probability on 22°C (48.5%) and 21°C (35.5%), reflecting traders’ assessment of current ensemble forecasts rather than climatological norms. Shorter-range model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$430End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and northerly winds forecast for Tokyo on September 20 are elevating overnight minimum temperatures above the 19.3°C historical average for the date, with model consensus pointing to a low near 21–22°C amid heavy cloud cover and steady precipitation. Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency highlights limited diurnal temperature variation under these conditions, as moisture and reduced solar heating suppress both daytime peaks and nighttime radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s concentration of implied probability on 22°C (48.5%) and 21°C (35.5%), reflecting traders’ assessment of current ensemble forecasts rather than climatological norms. Shorter-range model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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