Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since U.S. forces seized him and his wife Cilia Flores in Caracas on January 3, 2026, during a military operation. He faces narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with both defendants pleading not guilty and declining to seek bail. A pretrial hearing is set for November 2026 and the trial for June 2027, leaving extended room for motions on issues such as head-of-state immunity or the legality of the transfer. Venezuelan officials have publicly demanded his release through diplomatic channels, while no U.S. executive action or plea developments have altered detention status. These factors, combined with the multi-year judicial timeline and absence of intervening diplomatic breakthroughs, shape trader assessments of release probabilities by specific dates or actors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,687,782 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,687,782 Vol.
December 31
$292,333 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since U.S. forces seized him and his wife Cilia Flores in Caracas on January 3, 2026, during a military operation. He faces narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with both defendants pleading not guilty and declining to seek bail. A pretrial hearing is set for November 2026 and the trial for June 2027, leaving extended room for motions on issues such as head-of-state immunity or the legality of the transfer. Venezuelan officials have publicly demanded his release through diplomatic channels, while no U.S. executive action or plea developments have altered detention status. These factors, combined with the multi-year judicial timeline and absence of intervening diplomatic breakthroughs, shape trader assessments of release probabilities by specific dates or actors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,687,782End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since U.S. forces seized him and his wife Cilia Flores in Caracas on January 3, 2026, during a military operation. He faces narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with both defendants pleading not guilty and declining to seek bail. A pretrial hearing is set for November 2026 and the trial for June 2027, leaving extended room for motions on issues such as head-of-state immunity or the legality of the transfer. Venezuelan officials have publicly demanded his release through diplomatic channels, while no U.S. executive action or plea developments have altered detention status. These factors, combined with the multi-year judicial timeline and absence of intervening diplomatic breakthroughs, shape trader assessments of release probabilities by specific dates or actors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,687,782End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since U.S. forces seized him and his wife Cilia Flores in Caracas on January 3, 2026, during a military operation. He faces narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with both defendants pleading not guilty and declining to seek bail. A pretrial hearing is set for November 2026 and the trial for June 2027, leaving extended room for motions on issues such as head-of-state immunity or the legality of the transfer. Venezuelan officials have publicly demanded his release through diplomatic channels, while no U.S. executive action or plea developments have altered detention status. These factors, combined with the multi-year judicial timeline and absence of intervening diplomatic breakthroughs, shape trader assessments of release probabilities by specific dates or actors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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