Sabrina Carpenter's "House Tour" music video, co-directed with Margaret Qualley and starring Madelyn Cline, has amassed nearly 8 million YouTube views in its first 48 hours since the April 6 debut, propelling trader sentiment toward 12-15 million first-week totals in a razor-thin market. The cheeky heist romp from her Man's Best Friend album leverages Carpenter's Grammy-fueled superstardom, explosive social buzz—her announcement tweet hit 26 million impressions—and rave coverage from Billboard and Rolling Stone, mirroring her prior hits' rapid streaming trajectories. Yet closely matched implied probabilities (43.5% for 15m+, 41% for 12m-13m) reflect competitive dynamics: front-loaded YouTube gains risk tapering mid-week without viral TikTok boosts or playlist surges, with historical precedents showing 20-30% view decay post-initial spike ahead of April 13 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated# of views of Sabrina Carpenter's "House Tour" video on week 1?
# of views of Sabrina Carpenter's "House Tour" video on week 1?
15m+ 43%
11m-12m 40%
13m-14m 37%
14m-15m 35%
<11m
2%
11m-12m
40%
12m-13m
42%
13m-14m
37%
14m-15m
35%
15m+
43%
15m+ 43%
11m-12m 40%
13m-14m 37%
14m-15m 35%
<11m
2%
11m-12m
40%
12m-13m
42%
13m-14m
37%
14m-15m
35%
15m+
43%
This market will resolve according to the number of views Sabrina Carpenter's new "House Tour" YouTube video gets in the first 7 days after being posted.
If the relevant video becomes permanently unavailable by April 13, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this is the YouTube video for "House Tour" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWoTyfPsqbE), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of views Sabrina Carpenter's new "House Tour" YouTube video gets in the first 7 days after being posted.
If the relevant video becomes permanently unavailable by April 13, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this is the YouTube video for "House Tour" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWoTyfPsqbE), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Sabrina Carpenter's "House Tour" music video, co-directed with Margaret Qualley and starring Madelyn Cline, has amassed nearly 8 million YouTube views in its first 48 hours since the April 6 debut, propelling trader sentiment toward 12-15 million first-week totals in a razor-thin market. The cheeky heist romp from her Man's Best Friend album leverages Carpenter's Grammy-fueled superstardom, explosive social buzz—her announcement tweet hit 26 million impressions—and rave coverage from Billboard and Rolling Stone, mirroring her prior hits' rapid streaming trajectories. Yet closely matched implied probabilities (43.5% for 15m+, 41% for 12m-13m) reflect competitive dynamics: front-loaded YouTube gains risk tapering mid-week without viral TikTok boosts or playlist surges, with historical precedents showing 20-30% view decay post-initial spike ahead of April 13 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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