Trader sentiment on arrests before 2027 centers on DOJ investigations into former intelligence and public health officials, with John Brennan holding the highest implied probability around 30% due to ongoing scrutiny of prior Russia-related matters and intelligence assessments. Anthony Fauci trades near 10% amid continued examination of pandemic-era decisions and research funding. Lower odds for figures such as Adam Schiff and Barack Obama reflect narrower paths to charges under existing statutes and timelines. Recent enforcement actions have focused on immigration and election compliance rather than these individuals, while broader administration priorities on accountability for past federal actions sustain volume. Resolution depends on indictments filed by December 31, 2026, with any court filings or special counsel updates likely to shift pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$299,327 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
11%
John Brennan
29%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
18%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
40%
James Clapper
20%
Letitia James
16%
Hillary Clinton
4%
Bill Clinton
2%
Loretta Lynch
16%
Susan Rice
8%
Candace Owens
6%
Gavin Newsom
5%
Benjamin Netanyahu
4%
John Kerry
6%
Pam Bondi
3%
Tom Homan
7%
Kash Patel
4%
Brandon Johnson
12%
Lisa Cook
7%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
2%
$299,327 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$87,127 Vol.
11%
John Brennan
$17,543 Vol.
29%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$20,221 Vol.
18%
Adam Schiff
$16,165 Vol.
3%
Barack Obama
$26,334 Vol.
2%
James Comey
$9,577 Vol.
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,262 Vol.
40%
James Clapper
$4,817 Vol.
20%
Letitia James
$2,384 Vol.
16%
Hillary Clinton
$22,344 Vol.
4%
Bill Clinton
$981 Vol.
2%
Loretta Lynch
$2,339 Vol.
16%
Susan Rice
$303 Vol.
8%
Candace Owens
$263 Vol.
6%
Gavin Newsom
$35,040 Vol.
5%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,735 Vol.
4%
John Kerry
$210 Vol.
6%
Pam Bondi
$1,580 Vol.
3%
Tom Homan
$38,776 Vol.
7%
Kash Patel
$352 Vol.
4%
Brandon Johnson
$3,072 Vol.
12%
Lisa Cook
$744 Vol.
7%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$5,365 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on arrests before 2027 centers on DOJ investigations into former intelligence and public health officials, with John Brennan holding the highest implied probability around 30% due to ongoing scrutiny of prior Russia-related matters and intelligence assessments. Anthony Fauci trades near 10% amid continued examination of pandemic-era decisions and research funding. Lower odds for figures such as Adam Schiff and Barack Obama reflect narrower paths to charges under existing statutes and timelines. Recent enforcement actions have focused on immigration and election compliance rather than these individuals, while broader administration priorities on accountability for past federal actions sustain volume. Resolution depends on indictments filed by December 31, 2026, with any court filings or special counsel updates likely to shift pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$299,327Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on arrests before 2027 centers on DOJ investigations into former intelligence and public health officials, with John Brennan holding the highest implied probability around 30% due to ongoing scrutiny of prior Russia-related matters and intelligence assessments. Anthony Fauci trades near 10% amid continued examination of pandemic-era decisions and research funding. Lower odds for figures such as Adam Schiff and Barack Obama reflect narrower paths to charges under existing statutes and timelines. Recent enforcement actions have focused on immigration and election compliance rather than these individuals, while broader administration priorities on accountability for past federal actions sustain volume. Resolution depends on indictments filed by December 31, 2026, with any court filings or special counsel updates likely to shift pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$299,327Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on arrests before 2027 centers on DOJ investigations into former intelligence and public health officials, with John Brennan holding the highest implied probability around 30% due to ongoing scrutiny of prior Russia-related matters and intelligence assessments. Anthony Fauci trades near 10% amid continued examination of pandemic-era decisions and research funding. Lower odds for figures such as Adam Schiff and Barack Obama reflect narrower paths to charges under existing statutes and timelines. Recent enforcement actions have focused on immigration and election compliance rather than these individuals, while broader administration priorities on accountability for past federal actions sustain volume. Resolution depends on indictments filed by December 31, 2026, with any court filings or special counsel updates likely to shift pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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