Apple’s established pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases, with new iPhone models typically announced each September, underpins the 96% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders see no credible signals of disruption from supply-chain reports, component availability, or company statements as of late May 2026. Historical precedent reinforces this view, as Apple has maintained the cadence despite past feature shifts or manufacturing adjustments. While consensus is firm, realistic variables such as unforeseen semiconductor shortages, major redesign delays, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could still push a launch into early 2027, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current verified developments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
$111,252 Vol.
$111,252 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$111,252 Vol.
$111,252 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases, with new iPhone models typically announced each September, underpins the 96% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders see no credible signals of disruption from supply-chain reports, component availability, or company statements as of late May 2026. Historical precedent reinforces this view, as Apple has maintained the cadence despite past feature shifts or manufacturing adjustments. While consensus is firm, realistic variables such as unforeseen semiconductor shortages, major redesign delays, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could still push a launch into early 2027, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current verified developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$111,252Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases, with new iPhone models typically announced each September, underpins the 96% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders see no credible signals of disruption from supply-chain reports, component availability, or company statements as of late May 2026. Historical precedent reinforces this view, as Apple has maintained the cadence despite past feature shifts or manufacturing adjustments. While consensus is firm, realistic variables such as unforeseen semiconductor shortages, major redesign delays, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could still push a launch into early 2027, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current verified developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$111,252Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases, with new iPhone models typically announced each September, underpins the 96% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders see no credible signals of disruption from supply-chain reports, component availability, or company statements as of late May 2026. Historical precedent reinforces this view, as Apple has maintained the cadence despite past feature shifts or manufacturing adjustments. While consensus is firm, realistic variables such as unforeseen semiconductor shortages, major redesign delays, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could still push a launch into early 2027, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current verified developments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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