Apple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced each September, drives the 96% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 arrives in 2026. Traders see no credible signals of a skipped cycle or major postponement, given the company’s long track record, established supply chain, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software updates. While strong consensus reflects this predictability, realistic factors such as unexpected supply disruptions, significant design overhauls requiring extra validation, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could still shift timelines without derailing the overall yearly cadence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoApple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
Apple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
$111,382 Vol.
$111,382 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$111,382 Vol.
$111,382 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced each September, drives the 96% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 arrives in 2026. Traders see no credible signals of a skipped cycle or major postponement, given the company’s long track record, established supply chain, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software updates. While strong consensus reflects this predictability, realistic factors such as unexpected supply disruptions, significant design overhauls requiring extra validation, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could still shift timelines without derailing the overall yearly cadence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$111,382Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced each September, drives the 96% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 arrives in 2026. Traders see no credible signals of a skipped cycle or major postponement, given the company’s long track record, established supply chain, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software updates. While strong consensus reflects this predictability, realistic factors such as unexpected supply disruptions, significant design overhauls requiring extra validation, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could still shift timelines without derailing the overall yearly cadence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$111,382Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced each September, drives the 96% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 arrives in 2026. Traders see no credible signals of a skipped cycle or major postponement, given the company’s long track record, established supply chain, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software updates. While strong consensus reflects this predictability, realistic factors such as unexpected supply disruptions, significant design overhauls requiring extra validation, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could still shift timelines without derailing the overall yearly cadence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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