Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence drives the 96% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, following the expected iPhone 17 rollout in 2025. The company has maintained this September timing for new flagship models since the original iPhone, supported by established supply chains and silicon development cycles. Traders view major disruptions as unlikely given Apple's scale and historical execution. Potential swing factors remain limited but include unforeseen supply constraints, significant technical hurdles with next-generation components, or regulatory delays in key markets that could shift availability outside the calendar year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$111,549 交易量
$111,549 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$111,549 交易量
$111,549 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence drives the 96% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, following the expected iPhone 17 rollout in 2025. The company has maintained this September timing for new flagship models since the original iPhone, supported by established supply chains and silicon development cycles. Traders view major disruptions as unlikely given Apple's scale and historical execution. Potential swing factors remain limited but include unforeseen supply constraints, significant technical hurdles with next-generation components, or regulatory delays in key markets that could shift availability outside the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$111,549结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence drives the 96% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, following the expected iPhone 17 rollout in 2025. The company has maintained this September timing for new flagship models since the original iPhone, supported by established supply chains and silicon development cycles. Traders view major disruptions as unlikely given Apple's scale and historical execution. Potential swing factors remain limited but include unforeseen supply constraints, significant technical hurdles with next-generation components, or regulatory delays in key markets that could shift availability outside the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$111,549结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence drives the 96% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, following the expected iPhone 17 rollout in 2025. The company has maintained this September timing for new flagship models since the original iPhone, supported by established supply chains and silicon development cycles. Traders view major disruptions as unlikely given Apple's scale and historical execution. Potential swing factors remain limited but include unforeseen supply constraints, significant technical hurdles with next-generation components, or regulatory delays in key markets that could shift availability outside the calendar year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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