Apple's long-standing practice of unveiling a new iPhone generation each September underpins the 96% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and credible leaks confirm that the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model are slated for a fall 2026 launch window, maintaining the company's hardware rhythm even as the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027 under a revised two-phase strategy. This split approach reflects deliberate portfolio adjustments rather than any delay to the overall lineup. While supply disruptions or regulatory hurdles could theoretically intervene, historical precedent and current manufacturing timelines make such outcomes unlikely before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$111,524 Vol.
$111,524 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$111,524 Vol.
$111,524 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of unveiling a new iPhone generation each September underpins the 96% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and credible leaks confirm that the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model are slated for a fall 2026 launch window, maintaining the company's hardware rhythm even as the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027 under a revised two-phase strategy. This split approach reflects deliberate portfolio adjustments rather than any delay to the overall lineup. While supply disruptions or regulatory hurdles could theoretically intervene, historical precedent and current manufacturing timelines make such outcomes unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$111,524Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of unveiling a new iPhone generation each September underpins the 96% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and credible leaks confirm that the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model are slated for a fall 2026 launch window, maintaining the company's hardware rhythm even as the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027 under a revised two-phase strategy. This split approach reflects deliberate portfolio adjustments rather than any delay to the overall lineup. While supply disruptions or regulatory hurdles could theoretically intervene, historical precedent and current manufacturing timelines make such outcomes unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$111,524Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing practice of unveiling a new iPhone generation each September underpins the 96% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and credible leaks confirm that the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model are slated for a fall 2026 launch window, maintaining the company's hardware rhythm even as the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027 under a revised two-phase strategy. This split approach reflects deliberate portfolio adjustments rather than any delay to the overall lineup. While supply disruptions or regulatory hurdles could theoretically intervene, historical precedent and current manufacturing timelines make such outcomes unlikely before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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