Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup underpins the 96.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new mainline model each September since 2007, with supply chains and development pipelines aligned to that rhythm. Recent executive commentary and industry reporting continue to point toward standard iteration on hardware and software features without signals of disruption. While realistic risks such as component shortages, manufacturing delays, or broader strategic shifts in product timing could theoretically intervene, these remain low-probability outliers given historical consistency and Apple's scale. Traders appear to view any deviation as highly improbable absent major unforeseen events.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Apple выпускать iPhone 18 в 2026 году?
Будет ли Apple выпускать iPhone 18 в 2026 году?
Да
$111,650 Объем
$111,650 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$111,650 Объем
$111,650 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup underpins the 96.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new mainline model each September since 2007, with supply chains and development pipelines aligned to that rhythm. Recent executive commentary and industry reporting continue to point toward standard iteration on hardware and software features without signals of disruption. While realistic risks such as component shortages, manufacturing delays, or broader strategic shifts in product timing could theoretically intervene, these remain low-probability outliers given historical consistency and Apple's scale. Traders appear to view any deviation as highly improbable absent major unforeseen events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Объем
$111,650Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup underpins the 96.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new mainline model each September since 2007, with supply chains and development pipelines aligned to that rhythm. Recent executive commentary and industry reporting continue to point toward standard iteration on hardware and software features without signals of disruption. While realistic risks such as component shortages, manufacturing delays, or broader strategic shifts in product timing could theoretically intervene, these remain low-probability outliers given historical consistency and Apple's scale. Traders appear to view any deviation as highly improbable absent major unforeseen events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$111,650Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup underpins the 96.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new mainline model each September since 2007, with supply chains and development pipelines aligned to that rhythm. Recent executive commentary and industry reporting continue to point toward standard iteration on hardware and software features without signals of disruption. While realistic risks such as component shortages, manufacturing delays, or broader strategic shifts in product timing could theoretically intervene, these remain low-probability outliers given historical consistency and Apple's scale. Traders appear to view any deviation as highly improbable absent major unforeseen events.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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