Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 keynote for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model drives the 98.8% market-implied odds for release in 2026. The company maintains its post-Labor Day cadence with pre-orders expected shortly after and on-sale dates around September 18, backed by supplier statements prioritizing premium variants despite memory and chip shortages affecting only base models. This split-launch strategy, with standard iPhone 18 variants now slated for spring 2027, still satisfies the core resolution criteria through the Pro lineup. Traders weigh historical consistency and recent event invites heavily, though minor risks like last-minute production tweaks or regulatory hurdles on the foldable remain possible before the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated99% chance
$175,416 Vol.
$175,416 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
99% chance
$175,416 Vol.
$175,416 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 keynote for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model drives the 98.8% market-implied odds for release in 2026. The company maintains its post-Labor Day cadence with pre-orders expected shortly after and on-sale dates around September 18, backed by supplier statements prioritizing premium variants despite memory and chip shortages affecting only base models. This split-launch strategy, with standard iPhone 18 variants now slated for spring 2027, still satisfies the core resolution criteria through the Pro lineup. Traders weigh historical consistency and recent event invites heavily, though minor risks like last-minute production tweaks or regulatory hurdles on the foldable remain possible before the event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$175,416End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 keynote for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model drives the 98.8% market-implied odds for release in 2026. The company maintains its post-Labor Day cadence with pre-orders expected shortly after and on-sale dates around September 18, backed by supplier statements prioritizing premium variants despite memory and chip shortages affecting only base models. This split-launch strategy, with standard iPhone 18 variants now slated for spring 2027, still satisfies the core resolution criteria through the Pro lineup. Traders weigh historical consistency and recent event invites heavily, though minor risks like last-minute production tweaks or regulatory hurdles on the foldable remain possible before the event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$175,416End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 keynote for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model drives the 98.8% market-implied odds for release in 2026. The company maintains its post-Labor Day cadence with pre-orders expected shortly after and on-sale dates around September 18, backed by supplier statements prioritizing premium variants despite memory and chip shortages affecting only base models. This split-launch strategy, with standard iPhone 18 variants now slated for spring 2027, still satisfies the core resolution criteria through the Pro lineup. Traders weigh historical consistency and recent event invites heavily, though minor risks like last-minute production tweaks or regulatory hurdles on the foldable remain possible before the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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