Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 7.5% chance of Apple releasing Vision Pro 2 before 2027, driven by the original mixed reality headset's sluggish sales—leading to production halts and a strategic pivot toward a lighter, cheaper "Vision Air" model targeted for 2027. Recent leaked roadmaps from April 2026 explicitly show no major Vision Pro updates this year, while credible reports highlight paused development amid low demand and high costs. Apple's typical multi-year cycles for ambitious spatial computing hardware, plus no supply chain signals of mass production ramps, reinforce this market-implied skepticism. A surprise could emerge via WWDC announcements or accelerated M5-based prototypes, but technical hurdles and prioritization of AR glasses make delays more likely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 7.5% chance of Apple releasing Vision Pro 2 before 2027, driven by the original mixed reality headset's sluggish sales—leading to production halts and a strategic pivot toward a lighter, cheaper "Vision Air" model targeted for 2027. Recent leaked roadmaps from April 2026 explicitly show no major Vision Pro updates this year, while credible reports highlight paused development amid low demand and high costs. Apple's typical multi-year cycles for ambitious spatial computing hardware, plus no supply chain signals of mass production ramps, reinforce this market-implied skepticism. A surprise could emerge via WWDC announcements or accelerated M5-based prototypes, but technical hurdles and prioritization of AR glasses make delays more likely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$2,507End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 7.5% chance of Apple releasing Vision Pro 2 before 2027, driven by the original mixed reality headset's sluggish sales—leading to production halts and a strategic pivot toward a lighter, cheaper "Vision Air" model targeted for 2027. Recent leaked roadmaps from April 2026 explicitly show no major Vision Pro updates this year, while credible reports highlight paused development amid low demand and high costs. Apple's typical multi-year cycles for ambitious spatial computing hardware, plus no supply chain signals of mass production ramps, reinforce this market-implied skepticism. A surprise could emerge via WWDC announcements or accelerated M5-based prototypes, but technical hurdles and prioritization of AR glasses make delays more likely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,507End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 7.5% chance of Apple releasing Vision Pro 2 before 2027, driven by the original mixed reality headset's sluggish sales—leading to production halts and a strategic pivot toward a lighter, cheaper "Vision Air" model targeted for 2027. Recent leaked roadmaps from April 2026 explicitly show no major Vision Pro updates this year, while credible reports highlight paused development amid low demand and high costs. Apple's typical multi-year cycles for ambitious spatial computing hardware, plus no supply chain signals of mass production ramps, reinforce this market-implied skepticism. A surprise could emerge via WWDC announcements or accelerated M5-based prototypes, but technical hurdles and prioritization of AR glasses make delays more likely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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