Apple’s decision to refresh the original Vision Pro with an M5 chip and Dual Knit Band in late 2025, rather than advancing a full next-generation spatial computing headset, underpins the 93% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from June 2026 indicates Apple has placed the lighter, cheaper successor “on ice,” with credible timelines now pointing to late 2028 or 2029 due to ongoing challenges in miniaturization, cost reduction, and supply chain readiness. Traders view the absence of active development or credible leaks as decisive. A surprise acceleration remains possible if Apple prioritizes rapid iteration on display or processor advances, though historical product cycles and current positioning make that outcome remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to refresh the original Vision Pro with an M5 chip and Dual Knit Band in late 2025, rather than advancing a full next-generation spatial computing headset, underpins the 93% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from June 2026 indicates Apple has placed the lighter, cheaper successor “on ice,” with credible timelines now pointing to late 2028 or 2029 due to ongoing challenges in miniaturization, cost reduction, and supply chain readiness. Traders view the absence of active development or credible leaks as decisive. A surprise acceleration remains possible if Apple prioritizes rapid iteration on display or processor advances, though historical product cycles and current positioning make that outcome remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$5,749End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to refresh the original Vision Pro with an M5 chip and Dual Knit Band in late 2025, rather than advancing a full next-generation spatial computing headset, underpins the 93% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from June 2026 indicates Apple has placed the lighter, cheaper successor “on ice,” with credible timelines now pointing to late 2028 or 2029 due to ongoing challenges in miniaturization, cost reduction, and supply chain readiness. Traders view the absence of active development or credible leaks as decisive. A surprise acceleration remains possible if Apple prioritizes rapid iteration on display or processor advances, though historical product cycles and current positioning make that outcome remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,749End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s decision to refresh the original Vision Pro with an M5 chip and Dual Knit Band in late 2025, rather than advancing a full next-generation spatial computing headset, underpins the 93% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from June 2026 indicates Apple has placed the lighter, cheaper successor “on ice,” with credible timelines now pointing to late 2028 or 2029 due to ongoing challenges in miniaturization, cost reduction, and supply chain readiness. Traders view the absence of active development or credible leaks as decisive. A surprise acceleration remains possible if Apple prioritizes rapid iteration on display or processor advances, though historical product cycles and current positioning make that outcome remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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