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Geopolitics·Ukraine Map

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

icon for Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?
Geopolitics·Ukraine Map

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

$414,103 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$414,103 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$106,484 Vol.

18%

December 31

$12,873 Vol.

81%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated offensive operations toward Bilytske in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia sector of Donetsk Oblast as part of broader efforts to pressure Ukraine’s Fortress Belt around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Ukrainian reports through mid-September 2026 indicate ongoing clashes near the settlement, with Russian assaults repelled amid Ukrainian drone strikes and counterattacks that have limited net territorial gains across much of the front since March. Partial Russian advances or infiltrations east of Bilytske were noted earlier in 2026, but independent mapping has not confirmed full control, while Ukrainian forces have eliminated a Russian salient north of Lyman and reinforced command structures under new groupings led by Brigadier General Andriy Biletskyi. Russian momentum remains constrained by Ukrainian defensive adaptations, though continued pressure in the Pokrovsk direction could influence timelines for any capture.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET.

The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png

Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png

Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$414,103
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 8:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated offensive operations toward Bilytske in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia sector of Donetsk Oblast as part of broader efforts to pressure Ukraine’s Fortress Belt around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Ukrainian reports through mid-September 2026 indicate ongoing clashes near the settlement, with Russian assaults repelled amid Ukrainian drone strikes and counterattacks that have limited net territorial gains across much of the front since March. Partial Russian advances or infiltrations east of Bilytske were noted earlier in 2026, but independent mapping has not confirmed full control, while Ukrainian forces have eliminated a Russian salient north of Lyman and reinforced command structures under new groupings led by Brigadier General Andriy Biletskyi. Russian momentum remains constrained by Ukrainian defensive adaptations, though continued pressure in the Pokrovsk direction could influence timelines for any capture.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET.

The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png

Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png

Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$414,103
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 8:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 81%, followed by "September 30" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?" has generated $414.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?" is "December 31" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.