**Ukrainian forces have intensified counterattacks in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast, targeting Russian positions around the village of Kolodiazi to disrupt a salient west of the Zherebets River.** Analysts tracking open-source footage and Russian milblogger reports noted Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps elements advancing from north and south in late August 2026, aiming to isolate Russian units near Shandryholove and Kolodiazi. Russian claims of control over the village date to mid-2025 but were repeatedly denied by Ukrainian spokespersons, who described ongoing Russian assault and infiltration attempts repelled by Defense Forces. The area remains a contested frontline point amid broader Ukrainian efforts to stabilize the northern Donbas flank and prevent Russian encirclement maneuvers toward Lyman. Trader assessments of re-entry timelines reflect the pace of these localized Ukrainian gains against Russian defensive efforts and artillery/drone pressure, with resolution tied to verified territorial control by the specified cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by...?
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
44%
December 31
59%
$744 Vol.
October 31
$89 Vol.
44%
December 31
$654 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Ukrainian forces have intensified counterattacks in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast, targeting Russian positions around the village of Kolodiazi to disrupt a salient west of the Zherebets River.**
Analysts tracking open-source footage and Russian milblogger reports noted Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps elements advancing from north and south in late August 2026, aiming to isolate Russian units near Shandryholove and Kolodiazi. Russian claims of control over the village date to mid-2025 but were repeatedly denied by Ukrainian spokespersons, who described ongoing Russian assault and infiltration attempts repelled by Defense Forces. The area remains a contested frontline point amid broader Ukrainian efforts to stabilize the northern Donbas flank and prevent Russian encirclement maneuvers toward Lyman. Trader assessments of re-entry timelines reflect the pace of these localized Ukrainian gains against Russian defensive efforts and artillery/drone pressure, with resolution tied to verified territorial control by the specified cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volume
$744End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Ukrainian forces have intensified counterattacks in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast, targeting Russian positions around the village of Kolodiazi to disrupt a salient west of the Zherebets River.**
Analysts tracking open-source footage and Russian milblogger reports noted Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps elements advancing from north and south in late August 2026, aiming to isolate Russian units near Shandryholove and Kolodiazi. Russian claims of control over the village date to mid-2025 but were repeatedly denied by Ukrainian spokespersons, who described ongoing Russian assault and infiltration attempts repelled by Defense Forces. The area remains a contested frontline point amid broader Ukrainian efforts to stabilize the northern Donbas flank and prevent Russian encirclement maneuvers toward Lyman. Trader assessments of re-entry timelines reflect the pace of these localized Ukrainian gains against Russian defensive efforts and artillery/drone pressure, with resolution tied to verified territorial control by the specified cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$744End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ukrainian forces have intensified counterattacks in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast, targeting Russian positions around the village of Kolodiazi to disrupt a salient west of the Zherebets River.** Analysts tracking open-source footage and Russian milblogger reports noted Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps elements advancing from north and south in late August 2026, aiming to isolate Russian units near Shandryholove and Kolodiazi. Russian claims of control over the village date to mid-2025 but were repeatedly denied by Ukrainian spokespersons, who described ongoing Russian assault and infiltration attempts repelled by Defense Forces. The area remains a contested frontline point amid broader Ukrainian efforts to stabilize the northern Donbas flank and prevent Russian encirclement maneuvers toward Lyman. Trader assessments of re-entry timelines reflect the pace of these localized Ukrainian gains against Russian defensive efforts and artillery/drone pressure, with resolution tied to verified territorial control by the specified cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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