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icon for Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitics·Ukraine Map

Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?

icon for Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitics·Ukraine Map

Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?

7% chance
Polymarket

$54,327 Vol.

7% chance
Polymarket

$54,327 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have maintained control of Borova in Kharkiv Oblast amid ongoing attritional fighting along the Oskil River axis, with recent counterattacks recapturing positions northeast of the settlement in June 2026 and stabilizing the frontline through September. Institute for the Study of War assessments show Russian advances in the Borova direction remain limited or absent, as Ukrainian pressure has reduced Russian footholds near Dvorichna and constrained broader offensive momentum in the Kupiansk sector. Staged Russian claims of gains earlier in the year did not reflect assessed terrain control, and current reporting indicates persistent Ukrainian defensive actions, including repelled assaults and incremental territorial adjustments favoring Ukraine. Traders assign low odds to Russian capture of the specified intersection by the December 31, 2026, resolution date given these battlefield dynamics and the absence of decisive Russian breakthroughs in the sector.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png

Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png

Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$54,327
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have maintained control of Borova in Kharkiv Oblast amid ongoing attritional fighting along the Oskil River axis, with recent counterattacks recapturing positions northeast of the settlement in June 2026 and stabilizing the frontline through September. Institute for the Study of War assessments show Russian advances in the Borova direction remain limited or absent, as Ukrainian pressure has reduced Russian footholds near Dvorichna and constrained broader offensive momentum in the Kupiansk sector. Staged Russian claims of gains earlier in the year did not reflect assessed terrain control, and current reporting indicates persistent Ukrainian defensive actions, including repelled assaults and incremental territorial adjustments favoring Ukraine. Traders assign low odds to Russian capture of the specified intersection by the December 31, 2026, resolution date given these battlefield dynamics and the absence of decisive Russian breakthroughs in the sector.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png

Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png

Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$54,327
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?" has generated $54.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.