**Russian forces have conducted only limited offensive operations near Borova in Kharkiv Oblast without confirmed territorial gains in recent weeks, while Ukrainian units have carried out counterattacks that recaptured positions northeast and southeast of the settlement.** As of mid-September 2026, assessments from the Institute for the Study of War indicate no Russian advances in the Borova direction, with Ukrainian pressure reducing Russian footholds elsewhere along the Oskil River line, such as near Dvorichna. The broader Kupiansk sector remains contested but stable from the Ukrainian perspective, with Russian attempts to cross or consolidate across the river facing effective resistance. Earlier Russian claims of encirclements or captures in the area have not materialized on the ground. With roughly three and a half months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no evident acceleration in Russian momentum toward the specific intersection defining capture, trader consensus assigns a low probability to Russian control by the deadline. Scheduled or ongoing Ukrainian defensive and counteroffensive actions continue to shape expectations in this sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
7% chance
$54,327 Vol.
$54,327 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$54,327 Vol.
$54,327 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png
Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png
Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted only limited offensive operations near Borova in Kharkiv Oblast without confirmed territorial gains in recent weeks, while Ukrainian units have carried out counterattacks that recaptured positions northeast and southeast of the settlement.**
As of mid-September 2026, assessments from the Institute for the Study of War indicate no Russian advances in the Borova direction, with Ukrainian pressure reducing Russian footholds elsewhere along the Oskil River line, such as near Dvorichna. The broader Kupiansk sector remains contested but stable from the Ukrainian perspective, with Russian attempts to cross or consolidate across the river facing effective resistance. Earlier Russian claims of encirclements or captures in the area have not materialized on the ground. With roughly three and a half months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no evident acceleration in Russian momentum toward the specific intersection defining capture, trader consensus assigns a low probability to Russian control by the deadline. Scheduled or ongoing Ukrainian defensive and counteroffensive actions continue to shape expectations in this sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png
Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png
Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png
Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png
Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ET
Volume
$54,327End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png
Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png
Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted only limited offensive operations near Borova in Kharkiv Oblast without confirmed territorial gains in recent weeks, while Ukrainian units have carried out counterattacks that recaptured positions northeast and southeast of the settlement.**
As of mid-September 2026, assessments from the Institute for the Study of War indicate no Russian advances in the Borova direction, with Ukrainian pressure reducing Russian footholds elsewhere along the Oskil River line, such as near Dvorichna. The broader Kupiansk sector remains contested but stable from the Ukrainian perspective, with Russian attempts to cross or consolidate across the river facing effective resistance. Earlier Russian claims of encirclements or captures in the area have not materialized on the ground. With roughly three and a half months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no evident acceleration in Russian momentum toward the specific intersection defining capture, trader consensus assigns a low probability to Russian control by the deadline. Scheduled or ongoing Ukrainian defensive and counteroffensive actions continue to shape expectations in this sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png
Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png
Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png
Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png
Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$54,327End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Russian forces have conducted only limited offensive operations near Borova in Kharkiv Oblast without confirmed territorial gains in recent weeks, while Ukrainian units have carried out counterattacks that recaptured positions northeast and southeast of the settlement.** As of mid-September 2026, assessments from the Institute for the Study of War indicate no Russian advances in the Borova direction, with Ukrainian pressure reducing Russian footholds elsewhere along the Oskil River line, such as near Dvorichna. The broader Kupiansk sector remains contested but stable from the Ukrainian perspective, with Russian attempts to cross or consolidate across the river facing effective resistance. Earlier Russian claims of encirclements or captures in the area have not materialized on the ground. With roughly three and a half months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no evident acceleration in Russian momentum toward the specific intersection defining capture, trader consensus assigns a low probability to Russian control by the deadline. Scheduled or ongoing Ukrainian defensive and counteroffensive actions continue to shape expectations in this sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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