Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Politics·Military Strikes

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

icon for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Politics·Military Strikes

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

17% chance
Polymarket

$66,502,156 Vol.

17% chance
Polymarket

$66,502,156 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran tensions, including the 2026 conflict involving strikes on nuclear and military sites and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, culminated in a June memorandum of understanding aimed at halting hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and advancing nuclear talks. Subsequent violations by Iran, resumed attacks on shipping, and U.S. responses with targeted strikes and sanctions have kept friction elevated, yet the Trump administration has prioritized economic pressure, asset negotiations, and limited military measures over ground operations. Analysts note that a full-scale invasion would require tens of thousands of additional troops, risk severe retaliation, and repeat costly prior engagements, making it improbable before 2027 absent a major escalation. Ongoing diplomatic channels via Oman and statements from U.S. officials underscore trader consensus favoring continued containment rather than invasion.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$66,502,156
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran tensions, including the 2026 conflict involving strikes on nuclear and military sites and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, culminated in a June memorandum of understanding aimed at halting hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and advancing nuclear talks. Subsequent violations by Iran, resumed attacks on shipping, and U.S. responses with targeted strikes and sanctions have kept friction elevated, yet the Trump administration has prioritized economic pressure, asset negotiations, and limited military measures over ground operations. Analysts note that a full-scale invasion would require tens of thousands of additional troops, risk severe retaliation, and repeat costly prior engagements, making it improbable before 2027 absent a major escalation. Ongoing diplomatic channels via Oman and statements from U.S. officials underscore trader consensus favoring continued containment rather than invasion.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$66,502,156
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

7%
icon for Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

1%
icon for Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

2%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 17% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 17¢, the market collectively assigns a 17% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" has generated $66.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" is 17% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 17% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.