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icon for Will Trump sign an executive order on...?

Will Trump sign an executive order on...?

icon for Will Trump sign an executive order on...?

Will Trump sign an executive order on...?

$122,488 Vol.

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$122,488 Vol.

Polymarket

May 1

$460 Vol.

Yes

May 2

$560 Vol.

No

May 3

$833 Vol.

No

May 4

$1,956 Vol.

No

May 5

$1,341 Vol.

No

May 6

$713 Vol.

No

May 7

$28,616 Vol.

No

May 8

$2,227 Vol.

No

May 9

$8,670 Vol.

No

May 10

$4,442 Vol.

No

May 11

$4,843 Vol.

No

May 12

$2,174 Vol.

No

May 13

$8,435 Vol.

No

May 14

$6,028 Vol.

No

May 15

$2,860 Vol.

No

May 16

$3,780 Vol.

No

May 17

$4,772 Vol.

No

May 18

$2,877 Vol.

No

May 19

$2,299 Vol.

Yes

May 20

$1,608 Vol.

No

May 21

$4,878 Vol.

No

May 22

$2,097 Vol.

No

May 23

$12,493 Vol.

No

May 24

$754 Vol.

No

May 25

$1,054 Vol.

No

May 26

$2,170 Vol.

No

May 27

$1,289 Vol.

No

May 28

$1,778 Vol.

No

May 29

$3,969 Vol.

Yes

May 30

$1,117 Vol.

No

May 31

$1,395 Vol.

No

This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.President Trump holds broad authority to issue executive orders on topics including tariffs, federal workforce policy, customs enforcement, and artificial intelligence security. He signed multiple orders on June 2 and June 3, 2026, addressing aluminum, steel, and copper tariffs, AI innovation, customs protections, and excepted service schedules. Trader assessments of future signing likelihood on specific dates reflect the administration's pattern of targeted executive actions amid ongoing policy implementation, legislative negotiations, and potential responses to economic or security developments. Resolution depends on official White House announcements confirming signatures within the defined timeframe.

This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify.

This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify.

If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”.

In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.
Volume
$122,488
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.President Trump holds broad authority to issue executive orders on topics including tariffs, federal workforce policy, customs enforcement, and artificial intelligence security. He signed multiple orders on June 2 and June 3, 2026, addressing aluminum, steel, and copper tariffs, AI innovation, customs protections, and excepted service schedules. Trader assessments of future signing likelihood on specific dates reflect the administration's pattern of targeted executive actions amid ongoing policy implementation, legislative negotiations, and potential responses to economic or security developments. Resolution depends on official White House announcements confirming signatures within the defined timeframe.

This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify.

This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify.

If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”.

In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.
Volume
$122,488
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump sign an executive order on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 1" at 100%, followed by "May 19" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Trump sign an executive order on...?" has generated $122.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Trump sign an executive order on...?," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Trump sign an executive order on...?" is "May 1" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 19" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump sign an executive order on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.