**The next Canadian federal election is fixed for no later than October 15, 2029, following the April 28, 2025, vote that produced a Liberal minority government under Prime Minister Mark Carney.** Trader pricing on an early dissolution by December 31, 2026, remains low because the minority has shown stability since taking office, with no recent loss of supply or confidence votes in the House of Commons. By-elections scheduled for August 31, 2026, in three ridings could modestly shift the seat balance and test party momentum, but they do not trigger a general election. Historical precedent shows Canadian minorities can endure for extended periods absent a specific defeat on a key motion. Absent new catalysts such as a successful opposition non-confidence motion, major policy reversals, or unexpected parliamentary defections, the consensus implied by current market prices aligns with the structural barriers to an early call.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$93,799 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre 2026
6%
$93,799 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
$2,142 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The next Canadian federal election is fixed for no later than October 15, 2029, following the April 28, 2025, vote that produced a Liberal minority government under Prime Minister Mark Carney.** Trader pricing on an early dissolution by December 31, 2026, remains low because the minority has shown stability since taking office, with no recent loss of supply or confidence votes in the House of Commons.
By-elections scheduled for August 31, 2026, in three ridings could modestly shift the seat balance and test party momentum, but they do not trigger a general election. Historical precedent shows Canadian minorities can endure for extended periods absent a specific defeat on a key motion. Absent new catalysts such as a successful opposition non-confidence motion, major policy reversals, or unexpected parliamentary defections, the consensus implied by current market prices aligns with the structural barriers to an early call.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 28, 2026, 4:38 PM ET
Volume
$93,799Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 28, 2026, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The next Canadian federal election is fixed for no later than October 15, 2029, following the April 28, 2025, vote that produced a Liberal minority government under Prime Minister Mark Carney.** Trader pricing on an early dissolution by December 31, 2026, remains low because the minority has shown stability since taking office, with no recent loss of supply or confidence votes in the House of Commons.
By-elections scheduled for August 31, 2026, in three ridings could modestly shift the seat balance and test party momentum, but they do not trigger a general election. Historical precedent shows Canadian minorities can endure for extended periods absent a specific defeat on a key motion. Absent new catalysts such as a successful opposition non-confidence motion, major policy reversals, or unexpected parliamentary defections, the consensus implied by current market prices aligns with the structural barriers to an early call.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$93,799Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 28, 2026, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The next Canadian federal election is fixed for no later than October 15, 2029, following the April 28, 2025, vote that produced a Liberal minority government under Prime Minister Mark Carney.** Trader pricing on an early dissolution by December 31, 2026, remains low because the minority has shown stability since taking office, with no recent loss of supply or confidence votes in the House of Commons. By-elections scheduled for August 31, 2026, in three ridings could modestly shift the seat balance and test party momentum, but they do not trigger a general election. Historical precedent shows Canadian minorities can endure for extended periods absent a specific defeat on a key motion. Absent new catalysts such as a successful opposition non-confidence motion, major policy reversals, or unexpected parliamentary defections, the consensus implied by current market prices aligns with the structural barriers to an early call.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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