Canada's population contracted by 0.2% in 2025, its first annual decline since Confederation, driven by sharp reductions in non-permanent residents amid federal immigration caps. The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan stabilizes permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while cutting temporary resident targets by over 40%, aiming to lower their share of the population to 5% by 2027. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat growth for 2026 as outflows of temporary residents offset modest permanent inflows and limited natural increase. This policy shift creates the current near-even market balance, with traders weighing the pace of net migration against any potential adjustments or stronger-than-expected permanent admissions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAugmenté
Augmenté
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's population contracted by 0.2% in 2025, its first annual decline since Confederation, driven by sharp reductions in non-permanent residents amid federal immigration caps. The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan stabilizes permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while cutting temporary resident targets by over 40%, aiming to lower their share of the population to 5% by 2027. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat growth for 2026 as outflows of temporary residents offset modest permanent inflows and limited natural increase. This policy shift creates the current near-even market balance, with traders weighing the pace of net migration against any potential adjustments or stronger-than-expected permanent admissions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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