Canada’s population outlook for 2026 reflects tightened immigration controls under the 2026-2028 Levels Plan, which slashes new temporary resident arrivals to 385,000 while holding permanent resident targets near 380,000. Non-permanent resident outflows, driven by lower international student and work permit issuances plus expiring permits, are projected to offset modest permanent inflows and low natural increase from births minus deaths. This dynamic produced Canada’s first annual population decline in 2025 and supports trader expectations of flat or slightly negative growth this year. Shifts in permit renewal volumes, labor market demand, or further policy adjustments could alter net migration and tip the balance either direction before year-end data finalize the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAugmenté
Augmenté
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s population outlook for 2026 reflects tightened immigration controls under the 2026-2028 Levels Plan, which slashes new temporary resident arrivals to 385,000 while holding permanent resident targets near 380,000. Non-permanent resident outflows, driven by lower international student and work permit issuances plus expiring permits, are projected to offset modest permanent inflows and low natural increase from births minus deaths. This dynamic produced Canada’s first annual population decline in 2025 and supports trader expectations of flat or slightly negative growth this year. Shifts in permit renewal volumes, labor market demand, or further policy adjustments could alter net migration and tip the balance either direction before year-end data finalize the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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