Post-April 9 polling in Assam's single-phase assembly elections, marked by a record 85% voter turnout, trader consensus prices BJP victory at over 96% implied probability, driven by consistent pre-poll surveys like IANS-Matrize (NDA 96-98 seats), C-Voters (96-98), and Chanakya (83-90) projecting a commanding majority in the 126-seat house—far exceeding the 64 needed for government formation. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's popularity, post-delimitation seat adjustments favoring BJP strongholds, and opposition fragmentation among INC, AIUDF, and regional parties solidify this positioning. Awaiting May 4 vote counting, upset scenarios remain slim but could arise from verified irregularities prompting re-polls or stark discrepancies in trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative de l'Assam
Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative de l'Assam
BJP 96.2%
INC 3.0%
AITC <1%
CPI(M) <1%
$60,364 Vol.
$60,364 Vol.

BJP
96%

INC
3%

AITC
<1%

CPI(M)
<1%

NCP
<1%

AIUDF
<1%

BPF
<1%

CPI
<1%

NPEP
<1%

AGP
<1%
BJP 96.2%
INC 3.0%
AITC <1%
CPI(M) <1%
$60,364 Vol.
$60,364 Vol.

BJP
96%

INC
3%

AITC
<1%

CPI(M)
<1%

NCP
<1%

AIUDF
<1%

BPF
<1%

CPI
<1%

NPEP
<1%

AGP
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Post-April 9 polling in Assam's single-phase assembly elections, marked by a record 85% voter turnout, trader consensus prices BJP victory at over 96% implied probability, driven by consistent pre-poll surveys like IANS-Matrize (NDA 96-98 seats), C-Voters (96-98), and Chanakya (83-90) projecting a commanding majority in the 126-seat house—far exceeding the 64 needed for government formation. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's popularity, post-delimitation seat adjustments favoring BJP strongholds, and opposition fragmentation among INC, AIUDF, and regional parties solidify this positioning. Awaiting May 4 vote counting, upset scenarios remain slim but could arise from verified irregularities prompting re-polls or stark discrepancies in trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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