The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJerônimo Rodrigues 59%
ACM Neto 40%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$48,667 Vol.
$48,667 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
59%
ACM Neto
40%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 59%
ACM Neto 40%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$48,667 Vol.
$48,667 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$15,747 Vol.
59%
ACM Neto
$17,337 Vol.
40%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,825 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$3,606 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$2,736 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$2,827 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$2,589 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$48,667Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$48,667Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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