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Élections·Primaires

Gagnants principaux CA-04

icon for Gagnants principaux CA-04
Élections·Primaires

Gagnants principaux CA-04

$22,131 Vol.

2 juin 2026
Polymarket

$22,131 Vol.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,602 Vol.

99%

Eric Jones

$4,475 Vol.

91%

Heath Fulkerson

$315 Vol.

11%

Trevor Merrell

$6,994 Vol.

11%

John Wesley Tyler

$670 Vol.

9%

Mandy Ghusar

$744 Vol.

7%

Sharon Brown

$1,621 Vol.

6%

Laurie MacKenzie

$710 Vol.

5%

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) leads the crowded field for California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, bolstered by his 28-year tenure, Democratic Party of California endorsement, and strong cash reserves of $2.56 million as of March 31 FEC reports, amid a post-redistricting map that retains a solid Democratic lean despite narrowing from 2024. Challenger Eric Jones (D), a progressive backed by Our Revolution, tops receipts at $3.25 million, positioning him as the likely second-place finisher in the nonpartisan contest where the top two advance regardless of party. Six Republicans and one independent trail far behind in fundraising, fragmenting opposition votes and reducing their advancement odds in this safe Democratic seat rated as such by Cook Political Report and others. Early voting begins May 4, with no recent polls but trader consensus reflecting incumbency advantages and GOP vote-splitting risks.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,131
Date de fin
2 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) leads the crowded field for California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, bolstered by his 28-year tenure, Democratic Party of California endorsement, and strong cash reserves of $2.56 million as of March 31 FEC reports, amid a post-redistricting map that retains a solid Democratic lean despite narrowing from 2024. Challenger Eric Jones (D), a progressive backed by Our Revolution, tops receipts at $3.25 million, positioning him as the likely second-place finisher in the nonpartisan contest where the top two advance regardless of party. Six Republicans and one independent trail far behind in fundraising, fragmenting opposition votes and reducing their advancement odds in this safe Democratic seat rated as such by Cook Political Report and others. Early voting begins May 4, with no recent polls but trader consensus reflecting incumbency advantages and GOP vote-splitting risks.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,131
Date de fin
2 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Questions fréquentes

« Gagnants principaux CA-04 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 8 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Mike Thompson » à 99%, suivi de « Eric Jones » à 91%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 99¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 99% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Gagnants principaux CA-04 » a généré $22.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 26, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Gagnants principaux CA-04 », parcourez les 8 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Gagnants principaux CA-04 » est « Mike Thompson » à 99%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 99% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Eric Jones » à 91%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Gagnants principaux CA-04 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.