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icon for CA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

CA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre

icon for CA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

CA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre

Polymarket

$33,967 Vol.

Polymarket

$33,967 Vol.

Sara Jacobs (D)

$18,229 Vol.

96%

Ricardo Cabrera (R)

$15,738 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Sara Jacobs holds a commanding position in California's 51st congressional district due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, her established record since 2023, and strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary where she secured 57.7% of the vote against Republican Ricardo Cabrera's 37%. Nonpartisan forecasts from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the November general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration patterns and historical margins. Cabrera advanced as the Republican nominee but faces structural disadvantages in fundraising and name recognition. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these factors while leaving limited room for shifts from unexpected events such as turnout surges or late national developments within the resolution window.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,967
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Sara Jacobs holds a commanding position in California's 51st congressional district due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, her established record since 2023, and strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary where she secured 57.7% of the vote against Republican Ricardo Cabrera's 37%. Nonpartisan forecasts from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the November general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration patterns and historical margins. Cabrera advanced as the Republican nominee but faces structural disadvantages in fundraising and name recognition. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these factors while leaving limited room for shifts from unexpected events such as turnout surges or late national developments within the resolution window.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,967
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...

Connexes

icon for Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre CA-52 ?

Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre CA-52 ?

95%
Oui
icon for Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour la circonscription CA-50 ?

Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour la circonscription CA-50 ?

96%
Oui
icon for Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre CA-47 ?

Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre CA-47 ?

95%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« CA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Sara Jacobs (D) » à 96%, suivi de « Ricardo Cabrera (R) » à 5%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 96¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 96% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « CA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » a généré $34K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 28, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « CA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « CA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est « Sara Jacobs (D) » à 96%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 96% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Ricardo Cabrera (R) » à 5%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « CA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.