Persistent euro area inflation, projected by ECB staff at a 3.0% average for 2026 after upward revisions tied to energy prices, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability against any rate cut this year. Following the June 2026 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the July decision to hold policy steady reinforced a restrictive stance amid above-target readings and anchored but elevated medium-term expectations. Traders price in limited scope for easing given upside inflation risks and subdued 0.8% growth forecasts. A sharper-than-expected decline in energy costs or material weakening in labor market data could still reopen the door to cuts before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$30,655 Vol.
$30,655 Vol.
Oui
$30,655 Vol.
$30,655 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent euro area inflation, projected by ECB staff at a 3.0% average for 2026 after upward revisions tied to energy prices, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability against any rate cut this year. Following the June 2026 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the July decision to hold policy steady reinforced a restrictive stance amid above-target readings and anchored but elevated medium-term expectations. Traders price in limited scope for easing given upside inflation risks and subdued 0.8% growth forecasts. A sharper-than-expected decline in energy costs or material weakening in labor market data could still reopen the door to cuts before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour

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