Official AEMET forecasts and supporting GFS/ECMWF runs indicate clear skies, light variable winds, and stable high pressure driving a moderate temperature rise, with Madrid maxima expected near 37–38°C on September 4. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38–40°C outcomes, as recent model guidance shows limited cloud cover and minimal precipitation risk allowing full diurnal heating. Historical September averages near 29°C underscore the anomaly, while the 2016 record of 37°C provides precedent for brief spikes above 38°C under similar anticyclonic setups. Traders appear to price in slight upside from ensemble spread and potential model underestimation of peak afternoon values, though resolution hinges on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at official stations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Madrid le 4 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Madrid le 4 septembre ?
39°C 55%
40°C 24%
38°C 21%
37°C 3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
33°C ou moins
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
21%
39°C
55%
40°C
24%
41°C
1%
42°C
1%
43°C ou plus
<1%
39°C 55%
40°C 24%
38°C 21%
37°C 3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
33°C ou moins
$256 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$194 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$315 Vol.
1%
36°C
$298 Vol.
1%
37°C
$242 Vol.
3%
38°C
$800 Vol.
21%
39°C
$751 Vol.
55%
40°C
$674 Vol.
24%
41°C
$91 Vol.
1%
42°C
$96 Vol.
1%
43°C ou plus
$146 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official AEMET forecasts and supporting GFS/ECMWF runs indicate clear skies, light variable winds, and stable high pressure driving a moderate temperature rise, with Madrid maxima expected near 37–38°C on September 4. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38–40°C outcomes, as recent model guidance shows limited cloud cover and minimal precipitation risk allowing full diurnal heating. Historical September averages near 29°C underscore the anomaly, while the 2016 record of 37°C provides precedent for brief spikes above 38°C under similar anticyclonic setups. Traders appear to price in slight upside from ensemble spread and potential model underestimation of peak afternoon values, though resolution hinges on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,861Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official AEMET forecasts and supporting GFS/ECMWF runs indicate clear skies, light variable winds, and stable high pressure driving a moderate temperature rise, with Madrid maxima expected near 37–38°C on September 4. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38–40°C outcomes, as recent model guidance shows limited cloud cover and minimal precipitation risk allowing full diurnal heating. Historical September averages near 29°C underscore the anomaly, while the 2016 record of 37°C provides precedent for brief spikes above 38°C under similar anticyclonic setups. Traders appear to price in slight upside from ensemble spread and potential model underestimation of peak afternoon values, though resolution hinges on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,861Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Official AEMET forecasts and supporting GFS/ECMWF runs indicate clear skies, light variable winds, and stable high pressure driving a moderate temperature rise, with Madrid maxima expected near 37–38°C on September 4. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38–40°C outcomes, as recent model guidance shows limited cloud cover and minimal precipitation risk allowing full diurnal heating. Historical September averages near 29°C underscore the anomaly, while the 2016 record of 37°C provides precedent for brief spikes above 38°C under similar anticyclonic setups. Traders appear to price in slight upside from ensemble spread and potential model underestimation of peak afternoon values, though resolution hinges on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at official stations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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