Traders see 33–35°C as the most probable range for Chengdu’s September 2 high because short-range numerical models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles converge on a maximum near 34°C under late-summer subtropical conditions. The tight spread among these three outcomes reflects lingering uncertainty in cloud cover, afternoon convection, and boundary-layer moisture within the Sichuan basin, where even modest changes in timing or intensity can shift the peak reading by 1–2 °C. Recent model cycles show little trend in the forecast, leaving the market-implied odds aligned with the ensemble mean while assigning lower probability to outliers above 36 °C or below 32 °C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Chengdu le 2 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Chengdu le 2 septembre ?
34°C 29%
35°C 28%
33°C 27%
37°C 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 sept. 2026
28°C or below
4%
29°C
7%
30°C
4%
31°C
15%
32°C
11%
33°C
27%
34°C
29%
35°C
28%
36°C
11%
37°C
19%
38°C or higher
19%
34°C 29%
35°C 28%
33°C 27%
37°C 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 sept. 2026
28°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
7%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$5 Vol.
15%
32°C
$15 Vol.
11%
33°C
$0 Vol.
27%
34°C
$0 Vol.
29%
35°C
$14 Vol.
28%
36°C
$8 Vol.
11%
37°C
$40 Vol.
19%
38°C or higher
$0 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 33–35°C as the most probable range for Chengdu’s September 2 high because short-range numerical models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles converge on a maximum near 34°C under late-summer subtropical conditions. The tight spread among these three outcomes reflects lingering uncertainty in cloud cover, afternoon convection, and boundary-layer moisture within the Sichuan basin, where even modest changes in timing or intensity can shift the peak reading by 1–2 °C. Recent model cycles show little trend in the forecast, leaving the market-implied odds aligned with the ensemble mean while assigning lower probability to outliers above 36 °C or below 32 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$82Date de fin
2 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 33–35°C as the most probable range for Chengdu’s September 2 high because short-range numerical models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles converge on a maximum near 34°C under late-summer subtropical conditions. The tight spread among these three outcomes reflects lingering uncertainty in cloud cover, afternoon convection, and boundary-layer moisture within the Sichuan basin, where even modest changes in timing or intensity can shift the peak reading by 1–2 °C. Recent model cycles show little trend in the forecast, leaving the market-implied odds aligned with the ensemble mean while assigning lower probability to outliers above 36 °C or below 32 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$82Date de fin
2 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 33–35°C as the most probable range for Chengdu’s September 2 high because short-range numerical models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles converge on a maximum near 34°C under late-summer subtropical conditions. The tight spread among these three outcomes reflects lingering uncertainty in cloud cover, afternoon convection, and boundary-layer moisture within the Sichuan basin, where even modest changes in timing or intensity can shift the peak reading by 1–2 °C. Recent model cycles show little trend in the forecast, leaving the market-implied odds aligned with the ensemble mean while assigning lower probability to outliers above 36 °C or below 32 °C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes