Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport weather station confirm the highest temperature reached 29°C on May 6, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on this outcome amid trader consensus backed by real-money positions. A dominant mass of dry air over southeastern Brazil suppressed cloud cover, enabling strong solar insolation and temperatures aligning precisely with INMET's pre-event forecast of 28-29°C maxima under clear skies and low humidity around 60%. This fits early May climatology, where autumn highs average 22-23°C but recent above-normal warmth—tied to lingering subtropical ridge patterns—pushed peaks higher. Scenarios challenging this include potential INMET data revisions from quality control or discrepancies across urban heat island-affected stations, though verified reports from multiple sources make such shifts highly improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 6?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 6?
29°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$38,071 Vol.
$38,071 Vol.
6 mai 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$38,071 Vol.
$38,071 Vol.
6 mai 2026
24°C or below
$1,608 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,496 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,285 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,169 Vol.
No
28°C
$6,205 Vol.
No
29°C
$6,163 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$4,465 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,803 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,519 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,158 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$3,199 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport weather station confirm the highest temperature reached 29°C on May 6, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on this outcome amid trader consensus backed by real-money positions. A dominant mass of dry air over southeastern Brazil suppressed cloud cover, enabling strong solar insolation and temperatures aligning precisely with INMET's pre-event forecast of 28-29°C maxima under clear skies and low humidity around 60%. This fits early May climatology, where autumn highs average 22-23°C but recent above-normal warmth—tied to lingering subtropical ridge patterns—pushed peaks higher. Scenarios challenging this include potential INMET data revisions from quality control or discrepancies across urban heat island-affected stations, though verified reports from multiple sources make such shifts highly improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volume
$38,071Date de fin
6 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 12:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport weather station confirm the highest temperature reached 29°C on May 6, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on this outcome amid trader consensus backed by real-money positions. A dominant mass of dry air over southeastern Brazil suppressed cloud cover, enabling strong solar insolation and temperatures aligning precisely with INMET's pre-event forecast of 28-29°C maxima under clear skies and low humidity around 60%. This fits early May climatology, where autumn highs average 22-23°C but recent above-normal warmth—tied to lingering subtropical ridge patterns—pushed peaks higher. Scenarios challenging this include potential INMET data revisions from quality control or discrepancies across urban heat island-affected stations, though verified reports from multiple sources make such shifts highly improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$38,071Date de fin
6 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 12:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport weather station confirm the highest temperature reached 29°C on May 6, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on this outcome amid trader consensus backed by real-money positions. A dominant mass of dry air over southeastern Brazil suppressed cloud cover, enabling strong solar insolation and temperatures aligning precisely with INMET's pre-event forecast of 28-29°C maxima under clear skies and low humidity around 60%. This fits early May climatology, where autumn highs average 22-23°C but recent above-normal warmth—tied to lingering subtropical ridge patterns—pushed peaks higher. Scenarios challenging this include potential INMET data revisions from quality control or discrepancies across urban heat island-affected stations, though verified reports from multiple sources make such shifts highly improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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