**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes (49.5% and 35.0%). Mid-September climatology for Tokyo shows average daily highs near 27–28°C; the current setup features a transient ridge and warmer advection that elevates readings by 2–4°C above the seasonal baseline while keeping precipitation chances low (under 20–30% in most runs). Model agreement is strong across short-range guidance, limiting dispersion and thus compressing implied probabilities away from 29°C or 32°C+ tails. Recent clearing after early-September rainfall has allowed surface temperatures to respond to insolation and boundary-layer mixing, supporting the upward shift in expectations. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble means issued September 12 reinforce this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up or minor wind shifts. Traders are therefore pricing the resolution criteria—official JMA Tokyo station maximum—around the most probable model cluster rather than outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 14 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 14 septembre ?
30°C 44%
31°C 29%
29°C 16%
32°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 sept. 2026
25°C ou moins
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
5%
28°C
4%
29°C
16%
30°C
44%
31°C
29%
32°C
6%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C ou plus
<1%
30°C 44%
31°C 29%
29°C 16%
32°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 sept. 2026
25°C ou moins
$302 Vol.
1%
26°C
$46 Vol.
2%
27°C
$70 Vol.
5%
28°C
$69 Vol.
4%
29°C
$510 Vol.
16%
30°C
$521 Vol.
44%
31°C
$907 Vol.
29%
32°C
$103 Vol.
6%
33°C
$56 Vol.
2%
34°C
$71 Vol.
2%
35°C ou plus
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes (49.5% and 35.0%).
Mid-September climatology for Tokyo shows average daily highs near 27–28°C; the current setup features a transient ridge and warmer advection that elevates readings by 2–4°C above the seasonal baseline while keeping precipitation chances low (under 20–30% in most runs). Model agreement is strong across short-range guidance, limiting dispersion and thus compressing implied probabilities away from 29°C or 32°C+ tails.
Recent clearing after early-September rainfall has allowed surface temperatures to respond to insolation and boundary-layer mixing, supporting the upward shift in expectations. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble means issued September 12 reinforce this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up or minor wind shifts. Traders are therefore pricing the resolution criteria—official JMA Tokyo station maximum—around the most probable model cluster rather than outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,689Date de fin
14 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes (49.5% and 35.0%).
Mid-September climatology for Tokyo shows average daily highs near 27–28°C; the current setup features a transient ridge and warmer advection that elevates readings by 2–4°C above the seasonal baseline while keeping precipitation chances low (under 20–30% in most runs). Model agreement is strong across short-range guidance, limiting dispersion and thus compressing implied probabilities away from 29°C or 32°C+ tails.
Recent clearing after early-September rainfall has allowed surface temperatures to respond to insolation and boundary-layer mixing, supporting the upward shift in expectations. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble means issued September 12 reinforce this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up or minor wind shifts. Traders are therefore pricing the resolution criteria—official JMA Tokyo station maximum—around the most probable model cluster rather than outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,689Date de fin
14 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes (49.5% and 35.0%). Mid-September climatology for Tokyo shows average daily highs near 27–28°C; the current setup features a transient ridge and warmer advection that elevates readings by 2–4°C above the seasonal baseline while keeping precipitation chances low (under 20–30% in most runs). Model agreement is strong across short-range guidance, limiting dispersion and thus compressing implied probabilities away from 29°C or 32°C+ tails. Recent clearing after early-September rainfall has allowed surface temperatures to respond to insolation and boundary-layer mixing, supporting the upward shift in expectations. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble means issued September 12 reinforce this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up or minor wind shifts. Traders are therefore pricing the resolution criteria—official JMA Tokyo station maximum—around the most probable model cluster rather than outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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