**Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show strong consensus for a 24°C minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, supporting the 94.5% market-implied probability.** Recent observations indicate partly cloudy to overcast conditions with moderate southerly winds and limited nocturnal radiative cooling, consistent with mid-September climatology where average lows hover near 20–22°C but elevated humidity and cloud cover moderate the drop. Multiple runs align closely on this threshold without significant divergence. Uncertainties remain from localized urban heat island effects or unexpected wind shifts that could nudge readings slightly higher or lower, though resolution criteria favor the modeled central tendency absent major forecast revisions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Tokyo le 14 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Tokyo le 14 septembre ?
24°C 94%
23°C 4%
22°C 1.6%
20°C ou moins <1%
$14,968 Vol.
$14,968 Vol.
14 sept. 2026
20°C ou moins
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
94%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C ou plus
<1%
24°C 94%
23°C 4%
22°C 1.6%
20°C ou moins <1%
$14,968 Vol.
$14,968 Vol.
14 sept. 2026
20°C ou moins
$1,593 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$940 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$740 Vol.
2%
23°C
$2,521 Vol.
4%
24°C
$4,245 Vol.
94%
25°C
$2,492 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$187 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$187 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$44 Vol.
<1%
30°C ou plus
$1,889 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show strong consensus for a 24°C minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, supporting the 94.5% market-implied probability.** Recent observations indicate partly cloudy to overcast conditions with moderate southerly winds and limited nocturnal radiative cooling, consistent with mid-September climatology where average lows hover near 20–22°C but elevated humidity and cloud cover moderate the drop. Multiple runs align closely on this threshold without significant divergence. Uncertainties remain from localized urban heat island effects or unexpected wind shifts that could nudge readings slightly higher or lower, though resolution criteria favor the modeled central tendency absent major forecast revisions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,968Date de fin
14 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show strong consensus for a 24°C minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, supporting the 94.5% market-implied probability.** Recent observations indicate partly cloudy to overcast conditions with moderate southerly winds and limited nocturnal radiative cooling, consistent with mid-September climatology where average lows hover near 20–22°C but elevated humidity and cloud cover moderate the drop. Multiple runs align closely on this threshold without significant divergence. Uncertainties remain from localized urban heat island effects or unexpected wind shifts that could nudge readings slightly higher or lower, though resolution criteria favor the modeled central tendency absent major forecast revisions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,968Date de fin
14 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show strong consensus for a 24°C minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, supporting the 94.5% market-implied probability.** Recent observations indicate partly cloudy to overcast conditions with moderate southerly winds and limited nocturnal radiative cooling, consistent with mid-September climatology where average lows hover near 20–22°C but elevated humidity and cloud cover moderate the drop. Multiple runs align closely on this threshold without significant divergence. Uncertainties remain from localized urban heat island effects or unexpected wind shifts that could nudge readings slightly higher or lower, though resolution criteria favor the modeled central tendency absent major forecast revisions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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