Recent short-range forecast guidance from New Zealand meteorological agencies points to a mild winter day in Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under a northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied 58.5 % probability on 16 °C and 28.5 % on 15 °C, reflecting model consensus around seasonal norms that average near 12–14 °C for early August. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest likelihood (45 %) to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, tempered by uncertainty in exact synoptic setup and potential for localized cooling from southerly changes. Traders appear to weigh these model runs against climatological baselines, with lower odds on extremes underscoring the narrow historical range of daily maxima this time of year. Updated MetService guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Wellington le 3 août ?
Température la plus élevée à Wellington le 3 août ?
16°C 55%
15°C 31%
17°C 12%
14°C 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 août 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
5%
15°C
31%
16°C
55%
17°C
12%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 55%
15°C 31%
17°C 12%
14°C 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 août 2026
10°C or below
$417 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$210 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$300 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$175 Vol.
1%
14°C
$384 Vol.
5%
15°C
$437 Vol.
31%
16°C
$1,258 Vol.
55%
17°C
$415 Vol.
12%
18°C
$22 Vol.
2%
19°C
$204 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$1 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast guidance from New Zealand meteorological agencies points to a mild winter day in Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under a northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied 58.5 % probability on 16 °C and 28.5 % on 15 °C, reflecting model consensus around seasonal norms that average near 12–14 °C for early August. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest likelihood (45 %) to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, tempered by uncertainty in exact synoptic setup and potential for localized cooling from southerly changes. Traders appear to weigh these model runs against climatological baselines, with lower odds on extremes underscoring the narrow historical range of daily maxima this time of year. Updated MetService guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$3,823Date de fin
3 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast guidance from New Zealand meteorological agencies points to a mild winter day in Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under a northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied 58.5 % probability on 16 °C and 28.5 % on 15 °C, reflecting model consensus around seasonal norms that average near 12–14 °C for early August. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest likelihood (45 %) to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, tempered by uncertainty in exact synoptic setup and potential for localized cooling from southerly changes. Traders appear to weigh these model runs against climatological baselines, with lower odds on extremes underscoring the narrow historical range of daily maxima this time of year. Updated MetService guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,823Date de fin
3 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast guidance from New Zealand meteorological agencies points to a mild winter day in Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under a northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied 58.5 % probability on 16 °C and 28.5 % on 15 °C, reflecting model consensus around seasonal norms that average near 12–14 °C for early August. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest likelihood (45 %) to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, tempered by uncertainty in exact synoptic setup and potential for localized cooling from southerly changes. Traders appear to weigh these model runs against climatological baselines, with lower odds on extremes underscoring the narrow historical range of daily maxima this time of year. Updated MetService guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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