Current forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Beijing's minimum temperature on September 4 will likely fall between 18–22°C, driven by a stable high-pressure system, light southerly winds, and partly cloudy conditions limiting overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 15–21°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in precise model outputs and local microclimate effects rather than a single dominant outcome. Warmer-than-average early September conditions have elevated baseline temperatures compared to historical norms, while any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could nudge the minimum lower. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 48 hours represent the key data points for traders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Pékin le 4 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Pékin le 4 septembre ?
15°C 87%
16°C 87%
17°C 87%
19°C 87%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
13°C ou moins
34%
14°C
18%
15°C
87%
16°C
87%
17°C
87%
18°C
86%
19°C
87%
20°C
87%
21°C
87%
22°C
2%
23°C ou plus
34%
15°C 87%
16°C 87%
17°C 87%
19°C 87%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
13°C ou moins
$48 Vol.
34%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C
$0 Vol.
87%
16°C
$0 Vol.
87%
17°C
$0 Vol.
87%
18°C
$0 Vol.
86%
19°C
$0 Vol.
87%
20°C
$0 Vol.
87%
21°C
$0 Vol.
87%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C ou plus
$48 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Beijing's minimum temperature on September 4 will likely fall between 18–22°C, driven by a stable high-pressure system, light southerly winds, and partly cloudy conditions limiting overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 15–21°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in precise model outputs and local microclimate effects rather than a single dominant outcome. Warmer-than-average early September conditions have elevated baseline temperatures compared to historical norms, while any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could nudge the minimum lower. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 48 hours represent the key data points for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$96Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Beijing's minimum temperature on September 4 will likely fall between 18–22°C, driven by a stable high-pressure system, light southerly winds, and partly cloudy conditions limiting overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 15–21°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in precise model outputs and local microclimate effects rather than a single dominant outcome. Warmer-than-average early September conditions have elevated baseline temperatures compared to historical norms, while any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could nudge the minimum lower. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 48 hours represent the key data points for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$96Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Beijing's minimum temperature on September 4 will likely fall between 18–22°C, driven by a stable high-pressure system, light southerly winds, and partly cloudy conditions limiting overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 15–21°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in precise model outputs and local microclimate effects rather than a single dominant outcome. Warmer-than-average early September conditions have elevated baseline temperatures compared to historical norms, while any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could nudge the minimum lower. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 48 hours represent the key data points for traders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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