**Strong southeasterly winds and clearing skies after recent showers are the main drivers shaping the closely matched market odds for Cape Town’s September 4 minimum temperature.** Current model consensus points to overnight lows near 9–12 °C under mostly clear conditions, with radiational cooling tempered by 20–35 km/h winds that limit extreme drops. Official guidance from the Met Office and international ensembles shows a minimum around 9 °C, while some runs favor 11–14 °C depending on wind strength and dew-point recovery. Historical September averages near 12 °C provide a baseline, but the tight clustering of probabilities across 6 °C–or-below (39 %) and 16 °C–or-higher (38.5 %) outcomes reflects genuine forecast spread in the final 24–48 hours before resolution. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and surface observations that could shift the exact minimum by a few degrees either way.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse au Cap le 4 septembre ?
La température la plus basse au Cap le 4 septembre ?
6°C ou moins 75%
16°C ou plus 75%
9°C 49%
11°C 48%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
6°C ou moins
75%
7°C
13%
8°C
13%
9°C
49%
10°C
29%
11°C
48%
12°C
29%
13°C
31%
14°C
48%
15°C
48%
16°C ou plus
75%
6°C ou moins 75%
16°C ou plus 75%
9°C 49%
11°C 48%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
6°C ou moins
$0 Vol.
75%
7°C
$0 Vol.
13%
8°C
$0 Vol.
13%
9°C
$0 Vol.
49%
10°C
$0 Vol.
29%
11°C
$0 Vol.
48%
12°C
$0 Vol.
29%
13°C
$0 Vol.
31%
14°C
$0 Vol.
48%
15°C
$0 Vol.
48%
16°C ou plus
$0 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong southeasterly winds and clearing skies after recent showers are the main drivers shaping the closely matched market odds for Cape Town’s September 4 minimum temperature.**
Current model consensus points to overnight lows near 9–12 °C under mostly clear conditions, with radiational cooling tempered by 20–35 km/h winds that limit extreme drops. Official guidance from the Met Office and international ensembles shows a minimum around 9 °C, while some runs favor 11–14 °C depending on wind strength and dew-point recovery. Historical September averages near 12 °C provide a baseline, but the tight clustering of probabilities across 6 °C–or-below (39 %) and 16 °C–or-higher (38.5 %) outcomes reflects genuine forecast spread in the final 24–48 hours before resolution. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and surface observations that could shift the exact minimum by a few degrees either way.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong southeasterly winds and clearing skies after recent showers are the main drivers shaping the closely matched market odds for Cape Town’s September 4 minimum temperature.**
Current model consensus points to overnight lows near 9–12 °C under mostly clear conditions, with radiational cooling tempered by 20–35 km/h winds that limit extreme drops. Official guidance from the Met Office and international ensembles shows a minimum around 9 °C, while some runs favor 11–14 °C depending on wind strength and dew-point recovery. Historical September averages near 12 °C provide a baseline, but the tight clustering of probabilities across 6 °C–or-below (39 %) and 16 °C–or-higher (38.5 %) outcomes reflects genuine forecast spread in the final 24–48 hours before resolution. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and surface observations that could shift the exact minimum by a few degrees either way.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Strong southeasterly winds and clearing skies after recent showers are the main drivers shaping the closely matched market odds for Cape Town’s September 4 minimum temperature.** Current model consensus points to overnight lows near 9–12 °C under mostly clear conditions, with radiational cooling tempered by 20–35 km/h winds that limit extreme drops. Official guidance from the Met Office and international ensembles shows a minimum around 9 °C, while some runs favor 11–14 °C depending on wind strength and dew-point recovery. Historical September averages near 12 °C provide a baseline, but the tight clustering of probabilities across 6 °C–or-below (39 %) and 16 °C–or-higher (38.5 %) outcomes reflects genuine forecast spread in the final 24–48 hours before resolution. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and surface observations that could shift the exact minimum by a few degrees either way.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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