**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Paris on September 4, 2026, centers on 18°C and 19°C as the most probable minima, reflecting tight model consensus around mild overnight conditions.** Current short-range forecasts from sources like Météo-France analogs, GFS, and ECMWF runs show a stable southwesterly flow under high pressure, with partly cloudy skies limiting strong radiative cooling. Overnight lows are projected in the 16–21°C range, with many detailed hourly outputs (e.g., Yr.no tables) indicating the daily minimum occurring near dawn around 18–19°C amid light winds of 3–5 m/s and dew points near 16–17°C. This setup favors modest cooling without the clear, calm conditions needed for deeper drops below 17°C. The close split between 18°C and 19°C odds highlights genuine ensemble uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Warmer outcomes (20°C+) would require more persistent cloud cover or stronger winds, while colder ones remain unlikely given the current Atlantic-origin air mass and historical September baselines (average lows near 13°C but elevated this week). Updated model runs through September 3 will likely refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Paris le 4 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Paris le 4 septembre ?
20°C 39%
19°C 34%
18°C 30%
17°C 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
14°C ou moins
7%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C
26%
18°C
30%
19°C
34%
20°C
39%
21°C
9%
22°C
2%
23°C
8%
24°C ou plus
7%
20°C 39%
19°C 34%
18°C 30%
17°C 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
14°C ou moins
$0 Vol.
7%
15°C
$0 Vol.
9%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
30%
19°C
$533 Vol.
34%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
9%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
8%
24°C ou plus
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Paris on September 4, 2026, centers on 18°C and 19°C as the most probable minima, reflecting tight model consensus around mild overnight conditions.**
Current short-range forecasts from sources like Météo-France analogs, GFS, and ECMWF runs show a stable southwesterly flow under high pressure, with partly cloudy skies limiting strong radiative cooling. Overnight lows are projected in the 16–21°C range, with many detailed hourly outputs (e.g., Yr.no tables) indicating the daily minimum occurring near dawn around 18–19°C amid light winds of 3–5 m/s and dew points near 16–17°C. This setup favors modest cooling without the clear, calm conditions needed for deeper drops below 17°C.
The close split between 18°C and 19°C odds highlights genuine ensemble uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Warmer outcomes (20°C+) would require more persistent cloud cover or stronger winds, while colder ones remain unlikely given the current Atlantic-origin air mass and historical September baselines (average lows near 13°C but elevated this week). Updated model runs through September 3 will likely refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$533Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Paris on September 4, 2026, centers on 18°C and 19°C as the most probable minima, reflecting tight model consensus around mild overnight conditions.**
Current short-range forecasts from sources like Météo-France analogs, GFS, and ECMWF runs show a stable southwesterly flow under high pressure, with partly cloudy skies limiting strong radiative cooling. Overnight lows are projected in the 16–21°C range, with many detailed hourly outputs (e.g., Yr.no tables) indicating the daily minimum occurring near dawn around 18–19°C amid light winds of 3–5 m/s and dew points near 16–17°C. This setup favors modest cooling without the clear, calm conditions needed for deeper drops below 17°C.
The close split between 18°C and 19°C odds highlights genuine ensemble uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Warmer outcomes (20°C+) would require more persistent cloud cover or stronger winds, while colder ones remain unlikely given the current Atlantic-origin air mass and historical September baselines (average lows near 13°C but elevated this week). Updated model runs through September 3 will likely refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$533Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Paris on September 4, 2026, centers on 18°C and 19°C as the most probable minima, reflecting tight model consensus around mild overnight conditions.** Current short-range forecasts from sources like Météo-France analogs, GFS, and ECMWF runs show a stable southwesterly flow under high pressure, with partly cloudy skies limiting strong radiative cooling. Overnight lows are projected in the 16–21°C range, with many detailed hourly outputs (e.g., Yr.no tables) indicating the daily minimum occurring near dawn around 18–19°C amid light winds of 3–5 m/s and dew points near 16–17°C. This setup favors modest cooling without the clear, calm conditions needed for deeper drops below 17°C. The close split between 18°C and 19°C odds highlights genuine ensemble uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Warmer outcomes (20°C+) would require more persistent cloud cover or stronger winds, while colder ones remain unlikely given the current Atlantic-origin air mass and historical September baselines (average lows near 13°C but elevated this week). Updated model runs through September 3 will likely refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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