**Clear skies and light winds under building high pressure are driving the tight market clustering around 11–15°C minima for Warsaw on August 30.** Numerical weather prediction models (GFS and ECMWF ensembles) converge on overnight radiative cooling with dew points near 12–14°C, producing minimum air temperatures typically between 13–16°C after the passage of a weak front. Subtle model differences in the timing of increasing mid-level moisture and boundary-layer mixing create the spread reflected in the closely matched probabilities, with traders weighting the most recent 00Z and 12Z runs. Historical late-August climatology supports this range, as Warsaw averages around 14–15°C lows under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model guidance and official IMGW briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Varsovie le 30 août ?
La température la plus basse à Varsovie le 30 août ?
13°C 47%
11°C 45%
15°C 44%
14°C 29%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 août 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
11%
11°C
45%
12°C
28%
13°C
47%
14°C
29%
15°C
44%
16°C
18%
17°C
5%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
13°C 47%
11°C 45%
15°C 44%
14°C 29%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 août 2026
9°C or below
$130 Vol.
1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
11%
11°C
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$0 Vol.
47%
14°C
$0 Vol.
29%
15°C
$0 Vol.
44%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
5%
18°C
$135 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$67 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light winds under building high pressure are driving the tight market clustering around 11–15°C minima for Warsaw on August 30.** Numerical weather prediction models (GFS and ECMWF ensembles) converge on overnight radiative cooling with dew points near 12–14°C, producing minimum air temperatures typically between 13–16°C after the passage of a weak front. Subtle model differences in the timing of increasing mid-level moisture and boundary-layer mixing create the spread reflected in the closely matched probabilities, with traders weighting the most recent 00Z and 12Z runs. Historical late-August climatology supports this range, as Warsaw averages around 14–15°C lows under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model guidance and official IMGW briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$332Date de fin
30 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light winds under building high pressure are driving the tight market clustering around 11–15°C minima for Warsaw on August 30.** Numerical weather prediction models (GFS and ECMWF ensembles) converge on overnight radiative cooling with dew points near 12–14°C, producing minimum air temperatures typically between 13–16°C after the passage of a weak front. Subtle model differences in the timing of increasing mid-level moisture and boundary-layer mixing create the spread reflected in the closely matched probabilities, with traders weighting the most recent 00Z and 12Z runs. Historical late-August climatology supports this range, as Warsaw averages around 14–15°C lows under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model guidance and official IMGW briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$332Date de fin
30 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies and light winds under building high pressure are driving the tight market clustering around 11–15°C minima for Warsaw on August 30.** Numerical weather prediction models (GFS and ECMWF ensembles) converge on overnight radiative cooling with dew points near 12–14°C, producing minimum air temperatures typically between 13–16°C after the passage of a weak front. Subtle model differences in the timing of increasing mid-level moisture and boundary-layer mixing create the spread reflected in the closely matched probabilities, with traders weighting the most recent 00Z and 12Z runs. Historical late-August climatology supports this range, as Warsaw averages around 14–15°C lows under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model guidance and official IMGW briefings expected overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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