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icon for Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Parti démocrate

$2,341 Vol.

90%

Parti républicain

$2,786 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley's established position in New York's 19th congressional district drives the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 89.5%. Riley secured the seat in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote and advanced through the June 2026 Democratic primary without significant opposition. The district, spanning the Southern Tier and Hudson Valley, rewards pragmatic constituent services and has shown Democratic lean in recent cycles. Republican nominee Peter Oberacker, who prevailed in his June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and fundraising disparities typical for challengers in Lean Democratic-rated seats per nonpartisan forecasters. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, limited late-cycle developments have emerged to alter the current implied probabilities reflected in real-money trading.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,126
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley's established position in New York's 19th congressional district drives the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 89.5%. Riley secured the seat in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote and advanced through the June 2026 Democratic primary without significant opposition. The district, spanning the Southern Tier and Hudson Valley, rewards pragmatic constituent services and has shown Democratic lean in recent cycles. Republican nominee Peter Oberacker, who prevailed in his June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and fundraising disparities typical for challengers in Lean Democratic-rated seats per nonpartisan forecasters. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, limited late-cycle developments have emerged to alter the current implied probabilities reflected in real-money trading.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,126
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Connexes

icon for Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre NY-20 ?

Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre NY-20 ?

94%
Oui
icon for Le Parti démocrate va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre NY-18 ?

Le Parti démocrate va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre NY-18 ?

91%
Oui
icon for Le Parti républicain va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre pour le TX-19 ?

Le Parti républicain va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre pour le TX-19 ?

94%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Parti démocrate » à 90%, suivi de « Parti républicain » à 10%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 90¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 90% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19 » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Dec 16, 2025. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19 », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19 » est « Parti démocrate » à 90%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 90% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Parti républicain » à 10%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.