Uncertainty over the 2025 NYC mayoral election winner drives equal trader probabilities across post-count ranges for the mayor's activity from March 24-31, 2026, as candidates exhibit diverse social media habits. Incumbent Eric Adams frequently posts on X, often exceeding 10 daily updates amid controversies, while frontrunners like Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani maintain steady but lower volumes, around 5-15 per week based on recent patterns. Recent polls show a tight Democratic primary race, with Cuomo leading narrowly at 35%, Mamdani at 25%, and Adams trailing at 15%, per Emerson College data. The June 24 primary and November general election loom as catalysts; scandals, endorsements, or withdrawals could clarify the poster's identity and normalize odds toward historical mayoral baselines of 20-60 weekly updates.