John Cowan leads the GA-11 Republican primary runoff market due to his first-place finish in the May 19 primary with 42.6% of the vote, advancing ahead of Rob Adkerson’s 21.7% into the June 16 contest for the open seat in the deep-red northern Georgia district. Trader consensus reflects Cowan’s stronger initial performance and sustained polling edge heading into the final round, while Adkerson benefits from name recognition as the retiring incumbent’s former chief of staff. A late-May and early-June debate between the two candidates highlighted contrasts in background and policy emphasis, with limited movement in probabilities since the primary results. Remaining candidates trail at negligible shares consistent with their earlier elimination. The runoff outcome will determine the Republican nominee for the November general election.