Trader consensus heavily favors 70-75% turnout at 82% implied probability for Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round election, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 contest's approximately 74% amid compulsory voting for ages 18-70, tempered by recent urban apathy. Logistical breakdowns—ballot shortages delaying Lima polls and extending voting for over 60,000—sparked early reports of low queues in the capital, where fragmentation among 35 candidates exacerbated disillusionment from a decade of instability with multiple interim presidents. Preliminary ONPE tallies show around 68% with rural areas undercounted, positioning traders to expect stronger provincial participation and abroad votes (1.2 million) to lift final figures into the leading bin before June 7 runoff certification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour70-75 % 82.0%
75-80 % 11%
80-85 % 4.7%
< 70 % 1.2%
$125,988 Vol.
$125,988 Vol.
12 avr. 2026
< 70 %
1%
70-75 %
82%
75-80 %
11%
80-85 %
5%
> 85 %
1%
70-75 % 82.0%
75-80 % 11%
80-85 % 4.7%
< 70 % 1.2%
$125,988 Vol.
$125,988 Vol.
12 avr. 2026
< 70 %
$18,854 Vol.
1%
70-75 %
$35,233 Vol.
82%
75-80 %
$19,542 Vol.
11%
80-85 %
$44,329 Vol.
5%
> 85 %
$8,030 Vol.
1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus heavily favors 70-75% turnout at 82% implied probability for Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round election, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 contest's approximately 74% amid compulsory voting for ages 18-70, tempered by recent urban apathy. Logistical breakdowns—ballot shortages delaying Lima polls and extending voting for over 60,000—sparked early reports of low queues in the capital, where fragmentation among 35 candidates exacerbated disillusionment from a decade of instability with multiple interim presidents. Preliminary ONPE tallies show around 68% with rural areas undercounted, positioning traders to expect stronger provincial participation and abroad votes (1.2 million) to lift final figures into the leading bin before June 7 runoff certification.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
Volume
$125,988Date de fin
12 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus heavily favors 70-75% turnout at 82% implied probability for Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round election, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 contest's approximately 74% amid compulsory voting for ages 18-70, tempered by recent urban apathy. Logistical breakdowns—ballot shortages delaying Lima polls and extending voting for over 60,000—sparked early reports of low queues in the capital, where fragmentation among 35 candidates exacerbated disillusionment from a decade of instability with multiple interim presidents. Preliminary ONPE tallies show around 68% with rural areas undercounted, positioning traders to expect stronger provincial participation and abroad votes (1.2 million) to lift final figures into the leading bin before June 7 runoff certification.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$125,988Date de fin
12 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 70-75% turnout at 82% implied probability for Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round election, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 contest's approximately 74% amid compulsory voting for ages 18-70, tempered by recent urban apathy. Logistical breakdowns—ballot shortages delaying Lima polls and extending voting for over 60,000—sparked early reports of low queues in the capital, where fragmentation among 35 candidates exacerbated disillusionment from a decade of instability with multiple interim presidents. Preliminary ONPE tallies show around 68% with rural areas undercounted, positioning traders to expect stronger provincial participation and abroad votes (1.2 million) to lift final figures into the leading bin before June 7 runoff certification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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