Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Enrique Leaño at 42.3% implied probability to win Bolivia's Sucre mayoral election, driven by recent polls from firms like Ciesmori and Ipsos showing him ahead by 15-20 points among registered voters in Chuquisaca department. Leaño, backed by the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party amid internal opposition fractures, benefits from strong grassroots mobilization and endorsements from local MAS leaders following the candidate registration deadline last month. Cristian Sanabria (19.5%) gains from Comunidad Ciudadana momentum in urban areas, while Hebert Marcelo Terrazas (13.3%) and Pablo Arízaga (12.2%) draw support from evangelical and independent voters, respectively. Upcoming debates and a potential MAS unity rally could shift odds before the vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection municipale de Sucre (Bolivie)
Vainqueur de l'élection municipale de Sucre (Bolivie)
Enrique Leaño 46.9%
Hebert Marcelo Terrazas 11.1%
Cristian Sanabria 9%
Juan Antonio Jesús 3.8%
$23,787 Vol.
$23,787 Vol.

Enrique Leaño
47%

Hebert Marcelo Terrazas
11%

Cristian Sanabria
20%

Juan Antonio Jesús
4%

Horacio Poppe
4%

Erick Marcelo Pedrazas López
3%

Richard Moscoso
3%

Pablo Arízaga
11%

Franz Tata García
1%

Cecilia Calani
1%

Fátima Tardío
1%

Wilber Chocamani
11%
Enrique Leaño 46.9%
Hebert Marcelo Terrazas 11.1%
Cristian Sanabria 9%
Juan Antonio Jesús 3.8%
$23,787 Vol.
$23,787 Vol.

Enrique Leaño
47%

Hebert Marcelo Terrazas
11%

Cristian Sanabria
20%

Juan Antonio Jesús
4%

Horacio Poppe
4%

Erick Marcelo Pedrazas López
3%

Richard Moscoso
3%

Pablo Arízaga
11%

Franz Tata García
1%

Cecilia Calani
1%

Fátima Tardío
1%

Wilber Chocamani
11%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Enrique Leaño at 42.3% implied probability to win Bolivia's Sucre mayoral election, driven by recent polls from firms like Ciesmori and Ipsos showing him ahead by 15-20 points among registered voters in Chuquisaca department. Leaño, backed by the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party amid internal opposition fractures, benefits from strong grassroots mobilization and endorsements from local MAS leaders following the candidate registration deadline last month. Cristian Sanabria (19.5%) gains from Comunidad Ciudadana momentum in urban areas, while Hebert Marcelo Terrazas (13.3%) and Pablo Arízaga (12.2%) draw support from evangelical and independent voters, respectively. Upcoming debates and a potential MAS unity rally could shift odds before the vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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