Alibaba's modest lead at 57.5% implied probability stems from its Qwen series' consistent strength on coding benchmarks, including web development tasks that test real-world agent performance. Multiple other labs cluster near 50%, underscoring a closely contested field where small differences in model capability, training data, or inference efficiency can shift rankings quickly. Chinese labs dominate the upper tier due to aggressive open-source releases and specialized fine-tuning, while U.S. and other international players trail on the provided odds. With resolution only weeks away, any new model drops, benchmark updates, or capability demonstrations before month-end could realign trader positions across the field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAlibaba 57%
SpaceXAI 24.6%
Moonshot 14%
Anthropic 3.1%
$42,045 Vol.
$42,045 Vol.

Alibaba
57%

SpaceXAI
25%

Moonshot
14%

Anthropic
3%

OpenAI
3%

Xiaomi
3%

Z.ai
2%

2%

DeepSeek
1%

ByteDance
1%

MiniMax
1%

Thinky
1%

Poolside
1%

Mistral
<1%

Meta
<1%

Tencent
<1%
Alibaba 57%
SpaceXAI 24.6%
Moonshot 14%
Anthropic 3.1%
$42,045 Vol.
$42,045 Vol.

Alibaba
57%

SpaceXAI
25%

Moonshot
14%

Anthropic
3%

OpenAI
3%

Xiaomi
3%

Z.ai
2%

2%

DeepSeek
1%

ByteDance
1%

MiniMax
1%

Thinky
1%

Poolside
1%

Mistral
<1%

Meta
<1%

Tencent
<1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 7:46 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba's modest lead at 57.5% implied probability stems from its Qwen series' consistent strength on coding benchmarks, including web development tasks that test real-world agent performance. Multiple other labs cluster near 50%, underscoring a closely contested field where small differences in model capability, training data, or inference efficiency can shift rankings quickly. Chinese labs dominate the upper tier due to aggressive open-source releases and specialized fine-tuning, while U.S. and other international players trail on the provided odds. With resolution only weeks away, any new model drops, benchmark updates, or capability demonstrations before month-end could realign trader positions across the field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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