US economic sanctions and a fuel blockade imposed since January 2026 have created severe shortages in Cuba without triggering direct military confrontation. The Trump administration has pursued regime change through tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, indictments of Cuban officials, and demands for political concessions, while Pentagon contingency planning and increased reconnaissance flights remain at the preparatory stage. Recent deployments of naval assets and Marine units to the Caribbean, alongside diplomatic contacts, reflect calibrated pressure rather than imminent operations. Traders appear to view sustained economic measures and negotiations as the dominant approach through year-end, reducing the likelihood of a clash despite periodic threats and Cuban defensive preparations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Oui
$237,273 Vol.
$237,273 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$237,273 Vol.
$237,273 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US economic sanctions and a fuel blockade imposed since January 2026 have created severe shortages in Cuba without triggering direct military confrontation. The Trump administration has pursued regime change through tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, indictments of Cuban officials, and demands for political concessions, while Pentagon contingency planning and increased reconnaissance flights remain at the preparatory stage. Recent deployments of naval assets and Marine units to the Caribbean, alongside diplomatic contacts, reflect calibrated pressure rather than imminent operations. Traders appear to view sustained economic measures and negotiations as the dominant approach through year-end, reducing the likelihood of a clash despite periodic threats and Cuban defensive preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$237,273Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US economic sanctions and a fuel blockade imposed since January 2026 have created severe shortages in Cuba without triggering direct military confrontation. The Trump administration has pursued regime change through tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, indictments of Cuban officials, and demands for political concessions, while Pentagon contingency planning and increased reconnaissance flights remain at the preparatory stage. Recent deployments of naval assets and Marine units to the Caribbean, alongside diplomatic contacts, reflect calibrated pressure rather than imminent operations. Traders appear to view sustained economic measures and negotiations as the dominant approach through year-end, reducing the likelihood of a clash despite periodic threats and Cuban defensive preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$237,273Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US economic sanctions and a fuel blockade imposed since January 2026 have created severe shortages in Cuba without triggering direct military confrontation. The Trump administration has pursued regime change through tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, indictments of Cuban officials, and demands for political concessions, while Pentagon contingency planning and increased reconnaissance flights remain at the preparatory stage. Recent deployments of naval assets and Marine units to the Caribbean, alongside diplomatic contacts, reflect calibrated pressure rather than imminent operations. Traders appear to view sustained economic measures and negotiations as the dominant approach through year-end, reducing the likelihood of a clash despite periodic threats and Cuban defensive preparations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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