The elevated probability assigned to no US-Cuba military clash in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s emphasis on sustained economic sanctions, a fuel blockade, and targeted designations of Cuban entities and foreign suppliers since January. These measures, reinforced by additional actions through July, have intensified pressure on the regime without triggering direct combat. US naval deployments, surveillance flights, and public warnings coexist with diplomatic engagement, including May military-to-military talks at Guantánamo and reported negotiations. Cuba’s defensive preparations and external fuel deliveries have further reduced escalation risks, while US commitments elsewhere limit appetite for a full-scale operation. This combination of coercive tools short of kinetic force underpins the current trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Oui
16% chance
$241,148 Vol.
$241,148 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
16% chance
$241,148 Vol.
$241,148 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The elevated probability assigned to no US-Cuba military clash in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s emphasis on sustained economic sanctions, a fuel blockade, and targeted designations of Cuban entities and foreign suppliers since January. These measures, reinforced by additional actions through July, have intensified pressure on the regime without triggering direct combat. US naval deployments, surveillance flights, and public warnings coexist with diplomatic engagement, including May military-to-military talks at Guantánamo and reported negotiations. Cuba’s defensive preparations and external fuel deliveries have further reduced escalation risks, while US commitments elsewhere limit appetite for a full-scale operation. This combination of coercive tools short of kinetic force underpins the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$241,148Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The elevated probability assigned to no US-Cuba military clash in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s emphasis on sustained economic sanctions, a fuel blockade, and targeted designations of Cuban entities and foreign suppliers since January. These measures, reinforced by additional actions through July, have intensified pressure on the regime without triggering direct combat. US naval deployments, surveillance flights, and public warnings coexist with diplomatic engagement, including May military-to-military talks at Guantánamo and reported negotiations. Cuba’s defensive preparations and external fuel deliveries have further reduced escalation risks, while US commitments elsewhere limit appetite for a full-scale operation. This combination of coercive tools short of kinetic force underpins the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$241,148Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The elevated probability assigned to no US-Cuba military clash in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s emphasis on sustained economic sanctions, a fuel blockade, and targeted designations of Cuban entities and foreign suppliers since January. These measures, reinforced by additional actions through July, have intensified pressure on the regime without triggering direct combat. US naval deployments, surveillance flights, and public warnings coexist with diplomatic engagement, including May military-to-military talks at Guantánamo and reported negotiations. Cuba’s defensive preparations and external fuel deliveries have further reduced escalation risks, while US commitments elsewhere limit appetite for a full-scale operation. This combination of coercive tools short of kinetic force underpins the current trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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