US economic sanctions, a fuel blockade since January 2026, and targeted designations against Cuban leaders have intensified pressure on Havana without crossing into direct military confrontation. Ongoing diplomatic talks, Cuban prisoner releases, and US officials' repeated statements ruling out imminent action support trader expectations that no clash will occur this year. Military posturing—including Caribbean naval deployments, surveillance flights, and contingency planning—has raised tensions alongside rhetoric from the Trump administration, yet these steps have remained below the threshold of armed engagement amid US focus on other theaters. The 74% implied probability on "No" reflects the dominance of coercive diplomacy and sanctions over kinetic options to date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Oui
$237,283 Vol.
$237,283 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$237,283 Vol.
$237,283 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US economic sanctions, a fuel blockade since January 2026, and targeted designations against Cuban leaders have intensified pressure on Havana without crossing into direct military confrontation. Ongoing diplomatic talks, Cuban prisoner releases, and US officials' repeated statements ruling out imminent action support trader expectations that no clash will occur this year. Military posturing—including Caribbean naval deployments, surveillance flights, and contingency planning—has raised tensions alongside rhetoric from the Trump administration, yet these steps have remained below the threshold of armed engagement amid US focus on other theaters. The 74% implied probability on "No" reflects the dominance of coercive diplomacy and sanctions over kinetic options to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$237,283Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US economic sanctions, a fuel blockade since January 2026, and targeted designations against Cuban leaders have intensified pressure on Havana without crossing into direct military confrontation. Ongoing diplomatic talks, Cuban prisoner releases, and US officials' repeated statements ruling out imminent action support trader expectations that no clash will occur this year. Military posturing—including Caribbean naval deployments, surveillance flights, and contingency planning—has raised tensions alongside rhetoric from the Trump administration, yet these steps have remained below the threshold of armed engagement amid US focus on other theaters. The 74% implied probability on "No" reflects the dominance of coercive diplomacy and sanctions over kinetic options to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$237,283Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US economic sanctions, a fuel blockade since January 2026, and targeted designations against Cuban leaders have intensified pressure on Havana without crossing into direct military confrontation. Ongoing diplomatic talks, Cuban prisoner releases, and US officials' repeated statements ruling out imminent action support trader expectations that no clash will occur this year. Military posturing—including Caribbean naval deployments, surveillance flights, and contingency planning—has raised tensions alongside rhetoric from the Trump administration, yet these steps have remained below the threshold of armed engagement amid US focus on other theaters. The 74% implied probability on "No" reflects the dominance of coercive diplomacy and sanctions over kinetic options to date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes