US economic pressure on Cuba through a fuel and oil import blockade since January 2026, paired with sanctions and targeted indictments, has aimed at forcing leadership changes or concessions without direct military engagement. Pentagon contingency planning for options such as surveillance overflights and potential troop movements has advanced in recent months, including a July concept briefing, yet officials have repeatedly described these as routine and noncommittal. Naval assets including the USS Nimitz strike group have operated in the Caribbean, while diplomatic talks and Cuban prisoner releases signal ongoing negotiations. Traders appear to view these measures as leverage rather than precursors to open conflict, consistent with the 74% probability assigned to no clash occurring for the remainder of the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Oui
$237,273 Vol.
$237,273 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$237,273 Vol.
$237,273 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US economic pressure on Cuba through a fuel and oil import blockade since January 2026, paired with sanctions and targeted indictments, has aimed at forcing leadership changes or concessions without direct military engagement. Pentagon contingency planning for options such as surveillance overflights and potential troop movements has advanced in recent months, including a July concept briefing, yet officials have repeatedly described these as routine and noncommittal. Naval assets including the USS Nimitz strike group have operated in the Caribbean, while diplomatic talks and Cuban prisoner releases signal ongoing negotiations. Traders appear to view these measures as leverage rather than precursors to open conflict, consistent with the 74% probability assigned to no clash occurring for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$237,273Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US economic pressure on Cuba through a fuel and oil import blockade since January 2026, paired with sanctions and targeted indictments, has aimed at forcing leadership changes or concessions without direct military engagement. Pentagon contingency planning for options such as surveillance overflights and potential troop movements has advanced in recent months, including a July concept briefing, yet officials have repeatedly described these as routine and noncommittal. Naval assets including the USS Nimitz strike group have operated in the Caribbean, while diplomatic talks and Cuban prisoner releases signal ongoing negotiations. Traders appear to view these measures as leverage rather than precursors to open conflict, consistent with the 74% probability assigned to no clash occurring for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$237,273Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US economic pressure on Cuba through a fuel and oil import blockade since January 2026, paired with sanctions and targeted indictments, has aimed at forcing leadership changes or concessions without direct military engagement. Pentagon contingency planning for options such as surveillance overflights and potential troop movements has advanced in recent months, including a July concept briefing, yet officials have repeatedly described these as routine and noncommittal. Naval assets including the USS Nimitz strike group have operated in the Caribbean, while diplomatic talks and Cuban prisoner releases signal ongoing negotiations. Traders appear to view these measures as leverage rather than precursors to open conflict, consistent with the 74% probability assigned to no clash occurring for the remainder of the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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