Despite ongoing U.S. economic pressure via oil import restrictions and naval deployments in the Caribbean since early 2026, active diplomatic negotiations with Cuban officials have produced prisoner releases and discussions on easing the blockade. Pentagon contingency planning for various scenarios remains at the exploratory stage without authorization for kinetic action, while U.S. forces continue managing the Iran ceasefire. These factors, combined with Cuba's limited military capacity and preference for negotiated outcomes among key U.S. decision-makers, underpin the 74% trader consensus against a military clash occurring before year-end. Scheduled talks and regional stability priorities further reduce near-term escalation risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Oui
$237,283 Vol.
$237,283 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$237,283 Vol.
$237,283 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite ongoing U.S. economic pressure via oil import restrictions and naval deployments in the Caribbean since early 2026, active diplomatic negotiations with Cuban officials have produced prisoner releases and discussions on easing the blockade. Pentagon contingency planning for various scenarios remains at the exploratory stage without authorization for kinetic action, while U.S. forces continue managing the Iran ceasefire. These factors, combined with Cuba's limited military capacity and preference for negotiated outcomes among key U.S. decision-makers, underpin the 74% trader consensus against a military clash occurring before year-end. Scheduled talks and regional stability priorities further reduce near-term escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$237,283Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite ongoing U.S. economic pressure via oil import restrictions and naval deployments in the Caribbean since early 2026, active diplomatic negotiations with Cuban officials have produced prisoner releases and discussions on easing the blockade. Pentagon contingency planning for various scenarios remains at the exploratory stage without authorization for kinetic action, while U.S. forces continue managing the Iran ceasefire. These factors, combined with Cuba's limited military capacity and preference for negotiated outcomes among key U.S. decision-makers, underpin the 74% trader consensus against a military clash occurring before year-end. Scheduled talks and regional stability priorities further reduce near-term escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$237,283Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite ongoing U.S. economic pressure via oil import restrictions and naval deployments in the Caribbean since early 2026, active diplomatic negotiations with Cuban officials have produced prisoner releases and discussions on easing the blockade. Pentagon contingency planning for various scenarios remains at the exploratory stage without authorization for kinetic action, while U.S. forces continue managing the Iran ceasefire. These factors, combined with Cuba's limited military capacity and preference for negotiated outcomes among key U.S. decision-makers, underpin the 74% trader consensus against a military clash occurring before year-end. Scheduled talks and regional stability priorities further reduce near-term escalation risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes